Everyone should be happy

Bush nominates Judge Roberts for the Supreme Court.  Good roundup at Michelle Malkin.

He's certainly more conservative than Sandra Day O'Connor ever was.  He's a step in the right direction.  Conservatives should be pleased, if not ecstatic.  He also was approved unanimously by the Senate to the Court of Appeals.  There should be no serious grounds for filibuster.  The democRats, while not particularly happy, should at least not be mortified.

All in all, it's a good thing, and there won't be much battle.

Yet.

The real battle is yet to come.  O'Connor, for all her faults, was still more often than not a part of the conservative majority bloc.  Replacing her, even with someone more conservative, won't change the dynamics of the court much.  It will just make it a little more consistent.

Others will retire.

Chief Justice Rehnquist will be hanging up his gavel soon.  Those who might be disappointed that Bush didn't nominate Janice Rogers Brown can take heart that, when Rehnquist calls it quits, Brown will be at the top of the list of replacements.  This will not be the real battle.  Rehnquist is one of the big three real conservatives.  Replacing him with Brown, while a big deal because it would mark the first black and the first woman Chief Justice (by a Republican), won't shift the court much.  Replacing an old conservative with a new conservative means no real change.

Justice John Paul Stevens is 85 years old.

Stevens, a reliable liberal, is the oldest member of the court.  He is about 5 years older than the feeble old Rehnquist, and about 10 years older than O'Connor.  He might not be mentioning it now, but he is going to have to retire soon.  Probably before Bush leaves office.

If the Senate is smart -- and I think some Senators are -- they will save their fight for Stevens.  If Stevens is replaced by a conservative, especially after the confirmation of Roberts and (presumably) Brown, then Bush will have succeeded in creating a Supreme Court with 5 reliably conservative voices: enough to ensure that every decision has a precedent-setting majority opinion.

Liberals will do everything they can to stop this.

Expect token mild resistance from the Senate bomb throwers like Schumer and Boxer, but in the end, an easy approval for Roberts.  Expect a little stiffer resistance when Rehnquist is replaced, but in the end, a fairly easy approval for his replacement.  But expect all political hell to break loose when Stevens calls it quits.  In the end, expect the battle to drag on right up until Bush's last days in office, where he will probably be forced to make a recess appointment before turning over the reigns of government to his successor.