Code Words

I am going to go out on a limb and predict that by Friday afternoon, the President will have nominated Janice Rogers Brown to the Supreme Court.  Here's why:

Bush, asked about his next nominee, said "I will pick a person who can do the job. But I am mindful that diversity is one of the strengths of the country."

Diversity.  That's a CODE WORD.  What Bush is saying is: "I am going to put a black woman on the Supreme Court."  And we already know he thinks Janice Rogers Brown is a "person who can do the job."

Let's review:

Janice Rogers Brown served on the California State Supreme Court.  She was so popular, that in liberal California, she was re-elected to this position in a landslide.  Any argument that she is "outside the mainstream" will fail.

Janice Rogers Brown was just confirmed to the Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit.  That means the Senate has just finished their rectal probe of her qualifications, and failed to find a reason to continue to block her.

Compare and contrast this to Sandra Day O'Connor, the "gold star" standard of the left:

O'Connor's experience prior to her nomination to the Supreme Court was sitting on the Arizona Court of Appeals: not the state's Supreme Court, and certainly not as important as an equivalent-tier court in a state as large as California!  Granted, times were different in O'Connors day, and, for her generation, she was more accomplished than just about any other female lawyer.  But then, that's just proof that O'Connor was put on the Supreme Court purely for diversity, and not for achievement.  With Janice Rogers Brown, we have a "diversity" appointment who also has real credentials, equal to any white male.  Which brings us to the fact that...

Janice Rogers Brown is a black woman.  How can any democRat filibuster against her and still maintain support among minorities?  This is especially critical right now, when democRats are trying to label Bush and conservatives as the real racists in light of New Orleans.

The Senate is also currently looking like it will roll over and let John Roberts through as Chief Justice.  But key democRats, like Ted Kennedy, Chuck Schumer, and Hillary Clinton, are going to vote against him.  With these key players already on record opposing a nominee who the majority supports, it takes away their credibility when they protest yet another Bush nominee.  Their actions today regarding Roberts reveal them as partisans who are going to oppose any Bush nominee, no matter what; thus, what incentive do they give Bush to appoint someone more "moderate"?

This all adds up to Janice Rogers Brown being an unstoppable nominee.  I expect her name to come up Friday afternoon.  Why then?

The Senate is scheduled to vote on Roberts on Thursday.  Once the vote is in, there is realistically nothing they will be able to do to change their minds.  Sure, they could, in theory, hold a re-vote before the swearing in.  But realistically, they must know that would just look stupid and would blow what little credibility they have left.  Bush will want to pounce while the vote is still in the news.  What's more, a Friday afternoon announcement will ensure that the press spends the whole weekend talking about nothing else.

What will the result be?

For one thing, this will be a major turning point when it comes to race relations and the Republican Party.  Add this in to Hurricane Katrina, and in the long run, it spells a sea change for the Party.  Sure, the talk today is that the gummint was out to kill black people.  But truth always comes out over time.  The more people like Louis Farrakhan play the race card now, the harder the truth will hit them down the road.

For another, this will fire up the conservative base.  Bush has been failing lately at connecting with his own hard core supporters.  He hasn't taken a strong leadership stance on cutting federal spending.  And his immigration policy risks permanently fracturing the Party.  Don't get me wrong: I love President Bush and support him in general.  But I do believe it is important for us to recognize problems so they can be fixed.  For all his successes with taxes, the economy, national security, the Global War on Terror, and more, these two failures are problems and must be fixed.  Many conservatives also think Bush has failed thus far in getting true conservative judges into the federal courts.  While I personally blame the Senate, others do view this as Bush's failure.  Naming Janice Rogers Brown, possibly the most popular of all of Bush's recent nominees, to the Supreme Court would be a major step towards restoring his support with the base.

The sudden surge of support for Bush that will inevitably come from his nomination of Janice Rogers Brown to the Supreme Court will then restore his political capital, and give him the strength he needs to push other agendas that have fallen off the radar of late.

There.  I have spoken.  There is a good chance I'll be proved wrong.  But at least I am confident enough to go on record.

Comments

[Cyndee]

I watched the press conference this morning, but I got a different impression. When the question about diversity was asked, the president hesitated so long that I got the impression he was trying to get some wiggle-room. I'm pretty sure it'll be a woman, hopefully Brown, but he sure looked like he had something besides diversity on his mind when he answered that question.

[Gullyborg]

Maybe he was just trying not to let on that he actually wants to nominate the best PERSON regardless of race or sex? But then, I think JRB is the right person, and her race and sex are bonuses...

[Bob]

I wouldn't bet against you.

[JayBoz]

Gully,

I would hope you are correct but there are other women on the short list. I would strongly urge everyone to e-mail the White House and urge the President to nominate Janice Rodgers Brown to be the next Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States! comments@whitehouse.gov

[Rivrdog]

...and if Bush gets Judge Brown on the SCOTUS, the theory will have proven out for the GOP, and maybe they will have the smarts to ask Condi to be their nominee for POTUS.

Gawd, I would LOVE to see an election campaign of Condi vs. Hillary!

[Gullyborg]

As much as I adore Condi, she isn't ready for POTUS yet. She has never been in any election!

Plus, she keeps saying she isn't interested in running for Pres.

But... she would be an ideal running mate!

Imagine a Giuliani-Rice ticket against Hillary-Obama...

(not that I want Giuliani as my top pick, but the signs point to a strong possibility he will be our nominee... I'd rather have Cheney-Rice!)

[scott]

I've been thinking the same thing. A Janice Rogers Brown nomination would hit all the right points perfectly. It's got to be her.

[GunnNutt]

"...it takes away their credibility when they protest yet another Bush nominee." Did they really have any to begin with?

I hope you're right about JRB!!!! I think she'd be terrific.

[cube]

JRB would be a good choice. Black & female & conservative. What a package. But the president has thrown curve balls in the past... it may be Judge Clement.