More encouraging news

Former Eugene Mayor Jim Torrey is running for the State Senate.  He will run in District 7, the seat currently held by democrat Senator Vicki Walker.  Walker is running for the democrat nomination against incumbent Governor Ted Kulongoski. 

I have no idea if Walker will run for Senate re-election if her gubernatorial bid goes nowhere.  But I think Torrey is a lock regardless.  Torrey is incredibly well respected in the area and will make a fine State Senator.  Don't be fooled by the Red Guard's statement about Walker already beating one former Mayor: Jim Torrey was probably the most popular Mayor Eugene has ever had; there is no comparison between Torrey and Jeff Miller.

If Walker bows out of the Senate race, there is no local democrat who can make a credible challenge against Torrey.  Bob Ackerman, an extreme liberal, may be popular in his own House district, but Senate 7 includes many more-conservative neighborhoods.  Ackerman will lack the broad appeal in the region enjoyed by Torrey.

But even if Walker decides to stay in her current office, Torrey will have an edge.

Walker will be battered by her challenge to Kulongoski.  She will have that big "loser" stamp on her forehead.  She is already doing poorly in her gubernatorial bid, with an incredibly incompetent performance on the Lars Larson show.  I'm not being partisan, and neither was Lars.  She was asked simple questions and gave meandering non-answers.  She came off as a doddering fool.  It all adds up to her retirement unless she gets out of the Governor's race NOW and puts forth a Herculean effort towards keeping her seat.

And in other potentially good news... I have heard from an anonymous source that long-time liberal U.S. Representative (and embarrassment to Oregon) Peter DeFazio is going to retire rather than seek re-election.  If true, Jim Feldkamp may as well pick out a new suit for his swearing in.  As long as he runs for re-election, DeFazio remains unbeatable.  But with an open seat, Feldkamp, by virtue of his impressive challenge to DeFazio in 2004, has the advantage of organization and fund-raising against an unknown democrat challenger.

But like I said, this is only potentially good news.  We'll see how that source pans out.  I'm not going to hold my breath...

Comments

[Rivrdog]

Can you install a pipeline to Gresham from Eugene and pipe some of that Kool-Aid up North? It sounds dee-licious.

Republicans taking over in Lane County? You've got to be shittin' me, Gully.

On the other hand, they've gone totally NASCAR-loony down in Cottage Grove, according to my sis who lives there. CG didn't used to be a redneck town...

Maybe the winds of change are blowing in the South Valley.

[Gullyborg]

Lane County is actually a 50-50 zone. The problem is that in Eugene itself, the split is more like 80-20 for the liberals. And only Eugene proper ever makes the news. So the largely conservative rural outskirts go unnoticed.

And even inside liberal Eugene, Torrey can win. Remember, Jim Torrey was re-elected Mayor in a landslide. He appeals to liberals and conservatives alike. He can win even though the bulk of the population will still vote democrat in other elections.

As for Feldkamp: remember that with DeFazio and our House District, we are talking about far more than Eugene or even all of Lane County. Over half the population of our district is rural. DeFazio keeps winning not because of liberal support, but because of the power of incumbency combined with his 80-20 Eugene base. Feldkamp, with no political experience and little outside support, gave DeFazio the toughest reelection bid of his career. Put a stronger Feldkamp up against an unknown for an open seat, and he wins.

[Coyote]

Walker will not be battered at all with her challenge to Teddy K.

Politics is only analagous to prize fighting to a point. That point ends when it comes to democrats challenging each other in primaries.

While I have heard good things about Jim Torrey from trusted people, he has to know that if Walker stays in her seat it will take a hurculean effort on his part to take that seat.

She beat the last challenger by over 4,000 votes and Torrey will have to pull every one of them plus one.

You also need to look at the voter registration of that district. I have seen time and time again how a popular "non partisan" official ran in a partisan race and was beat. Simply because the overwhelmng majority of the electorate will simply vote based on the "R" or "D" behind the name.

Sorry? Yes. Reality? Unfortunately.

[Gullyborg]

Senate District 7 is a combination of House Districts 13 and 14.

While 13 has given us Ackerman, 14 has given us a string of Republicans.

Senate 7 is competitive in an open seat election.

Also, don't discount the potential effect of an "anybody but Kulongoski again" attitude on the part of the voters. That could mean a nasty primary fight, followed by a strong Republican coattail in other partisan elections.

There are a lot of unknowns at this point.