Huckabee is ruining his chances of being VP

I suspect he recently came to suspect McCain is NOT going to pick him... otherwise he would be lying down and sucking it up in Washington.  He also might think that if he can get enough people to vote for him simply as "not McCain" that, in terms of actual votes and not delegates, he could "win" the nomination even if he doesn't.  Imagine if, after all the primaries are done, McCain has "won" the delegate count but is far behind in terms of actual votes... that could lead to a breakdown of the nomination process and all hell could break loose at the convention.

But my real point is that McCain won't choose Huckabee as his running mate.  He played Huckabee, got him to stay in the race long enough to force out Thompson, Giuliani, and Romney... now he serves no purpose and can be discarded.  McCain is a back stabber egomaniac, after all.

So, who will be the VP?  Assuming McCain survives the possible convention melt down?

Why he MIGHT want Huckabee:

Huckabee brings in very enthusiastic evangelical support.  Huckabee might not have a majority of supporters, but his supporters are "broken glass" supporters.  That means good turnout.  It could also help win back Congress and retake some state governments.

What Huckabee doesn't do:

He doesn't solidify the conservative base.  He is too fiscally liberal.  Many of the conservative Republicans who hate McCain have no love of Huckabee, either.  So I don't think Huckabee is the right choice.

Another option is to try to unite the Party with a "healing" choice like Mitt Romney.  Why this is good:

Romney has money.  That is always good.  Romney has organization.  Also good.  And, when it looked like a McCain/Romney race, the conservative base suddenly liked Romney a lot.

But...

The conservative base didn't get fired up enough about Romney to actually turn out enough to support him.  He spend too long being known as the wishy washy slick flip flopper.  He only REALLY caught on as a last-ditch "not McCain" candidate.  His actual power to bring on the base is probably highly overstated - or else he would have won more states.  Same goes for Fred Thompson, so no need to repeat it for him.

Another option, go for a traditional conservative who DIDN'T run, someone who hasn't already failed to make a big impression.  I know several people now looking at Mark Sanford.

Why might this work?  The base NEEDS to feel relevant.  A real conservative on the ticket WOULD help.

But...

Sanford is untested nationally.  He isn't well known outside his own state.  While some people in the conservative movement would be REALLY excited, the reality is that we are talking about a small number of highly politically active people, not the average November voter.  There is no guarantee someone like Sanford would resonate.

So the other option is...

Screw the base!

And... I think that is the most likely path for McCain.  McCain has NEVER tried to reach out to conservatives.  I think he will like someone like Rudy Giuliani as his VP.  Here is why:

It isn't about winning big in Red States.  It is about holding on to Red States, even if by only one vote, and making gains in Blue States.  McCain/Giuliani does that.

So what if the GOP loses Kansas?  What is that, like six votes in the Electoral College?  McCain/Giuliani could win New Jersey.  That's more than double.  They could win Pennsylvania.  That's more than triple.  They could force the democrats to spend all their money retaining New York and California, leaving states like Ohio and Florida safe in GOP hands - and the democrats CAN'T win the Electoral College without taking a state like Ohio or Florida away from the GOP.

McCain also benefits from ticket balancing with Giuliani.  Not liberal/conservative, but in other ways.  Giuliani is a lawyer and an executive.  He has a record of running things.  As VP, he could be tasked with running a number of projects for the administration - and would probably do them well.

My prediction: McCain/Giuliani, and they win BIG in the Electoral College even without getting the conservative base out in droves.

But then, lately my predictions have been way off...

Comments

[NotYourDaddy]

Huckabee sucks. McCain is bad enough, but a McCain/Huckabee ticket would be really hard to choke down.

What I like about Giuliani is that he is a true fiscal conservative, and a strong supporter of the war on terrorism. But he was so lame at campaigning, I'm not sure how much he'd really help McCain. And he won't appeal to most conservatives.

I'm still hopiong for Thompson. Thompson wasn't very good at campaigning either, but he would go a long way to help bring in the conservative vote. And McCain needs us, whether he knows it or not...

[Sakaki]

Nope. I can tell you who it is going to be, for three simple reasons:

1) Why is the Republican convention being held in a state that is quite hostile to Republicans?

2) Who is one of the closest advisors to McCain's camp?

3) Who is a leader that just dealt with a major league crisis that got national attention, and got great attention for it?

Answer: Minnesota, Tim Pawlenty, and Tim Pawlenty.

Mark my words.

[Coyote]

Sakaki beat me to the punch.

Tim Pawlenty

[Rivrdog]

I like the thinking, Gully. Makes the McCain bile in my gorge a bit more tolerable.

Also tolerable is the fact that if McCain DID turn up his toes in office, Rudy could probably finish the job in good order. In other words, a REAL Veep, not just a pretty face. Pawlenty would be a pretty face, and what about the bridge collapse makes him a hero? He was in charge of the Highway Dept, which ignored some fairly obvious signs of a deteriorating structure for years.

Politics can be nuanced. Broken bridges are obvious.

[OregonGuy]

thanks...I'll be chuckling today.

(I think it will be DeMint.)

[Patrick Joubert Conlon]

I gave up predictions although they're fun and I don't mind looking like a clown.

I'd be happy with anyone but Huckabee. That man is as creepily narcissistic as the other guy from Hope and, like Bill Clinton, he won't be happy till he is leader of a political cult. We haven't heard the last of the Huckster and he's pretty damn scary.

[DirtCrashr]

I'd rather see McCain/Rice - really open a can of whupass on the Beatnicks and Moonbats.

[Jack Roberts]

I think McCain will try to reach out to the base with his VP pick, and I also think he will look for someone young and (hopefully)someone who will be seen as a plausible President.

I think Sanford and Pawlenty are both reasonable choices, and I wouldn't rule out Christ of Florida.

If Jeb Bush were named Jeb Smith, I think he'd be the pick in a heartbeat.

[Steve]

Great site!

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