Resistance is futile!

Big bad news coming...

Insiders are telling me that the Mannix investigation brought to light by NW Republican may be bigger than anyone thought.  As in, big enough that not only might Mannix be destroyed by the negativity, but the Oregon Republican Party as a whole could suffer.  We are talking major, major issues here - and remember that Kevin was state GOP chair for a few years, so any dirt on him could easily be smeared over the entire party.

We won't know for sure until the story hits, probably in the Sunday paper.

But if my sources are correct, Mannix needs to drop out of the race before Sunday and diffuse this whole situation, before he blows our chances of dethroning the most vulnerable democrat incumbent Governor in the nation.  Moreover, if it is as bad as I am hearing, Mannix may bring down Republicans in other important regional races.  We don't want the whole Party to suffer just so Kevin can go on raising cash to pay off his campaign debts...

Jim Torrey for State Senate

With all the attention I have been giving the big state races for Governor and Supreme Court, you may have thought I had forgotten about some local races.  NOT TRUE!

In fact, I have been anxiously awaiting the launch of the Jim Torrey for State Senate website.  Well, here it is!

This is a big, BIG race.  We have the chance to put a business-friendly, common-sense oriented, down-to-Earth mainstream Republican in office, in place of one of the most wildly liberal democRats of our Senate.

Kick out Vicki Walker!  Elect JIM TORREY to our State Senate!

Meeting some bloggers

Oregon's next Governor, Jason Atkinson, took some time out of his extremely busy campaign schedule to hook up with some local bloggers.  We met him at the Eugene Airport this morning.  He's heading up North to the Portland area, where he'll be meeting a few more bloggers later tonight.

Here we see Bob from Eugene Rant, soon-to-be-blogging David (a fellow U of O Law student), Sailor from Do or Die, our next Governor, Vonski from They Call Me Vonski, yours truly, and Robin from Robin's Nest.

Senator Atkinson sounds very optimistic about the campaign.  He's getting a ton of grass roots support.  He says fund-raising is going well, and he expects it to do even better in the days ahead.  And the bulk of his fund-raising is coming from individual donors giving an average of about $25, not from big special-interests.  That's important.  One of the reasons I am supporting Senator Atkinson is that I believe he wants to be Governor to serve the people.  What's also important: he says he has overtaken one of the two "front runners" of the primary in fund-raising!

(UPDATE: after publishing this, I spoke again with the Atkinson campaign: they wanted to emphasize that they don't have hard numbers on their opponents' fundraising; it is their perception that they are exceeding at least one of them at this time -- Resistance is futile!)

It's time for the media to recognize that Senator Atkinson is a legitimate candidate and start giving him the serious attention he deserves.

He also commented that he is getting some attention from national players.  He commented that people like Grover Norquist and Robert Novak are taking notice.  And he said this attention is due, in large part, to the efforts of bloggers like us helping to get his name and his message out.

Hey, we do what we can!

Senator Atkinson really stressed how important he thinks blogs are.  He has given up on every newspaper except for the Wall Street Journal.  Meanwhile, he is getting more and more (and better and better) information from alternative media, like blogs.  And he stressed that it's not just young nerds turning to blogs: his wife's grandmother is reading them!  I hope she likes the picture we took...

So what was Jason's message to us today?  He said, and I quote:

People today want to believe they can get their government back.

He wanted to emphasize that he won't make a promise he doesn't intend to keep.  It's been nothing but the same-old-same-old from Oregon politicians for over a generation now.  It's time for a change.

I asked about a debate with his primary opponents.  He sounded very enthusiastic about it.  We're looking into the possibility of getting such a debate here at the University of Oregon School of Law.  Jason joked that, as the only non-lawyer of the bunch, that venue might go against him.  But seriously, we're looking into it, maybe around April of next year.  Memo to Kevin Mannix and Ron Saxton: we Atkinson supporters are issuing a challenge!  Are you up to it?

Speaking of lawyers... One hot topic in the news of late has been judicial activism.  We had a judge, recently appointed by "Sleepy Ted" Kulongoski, toss out Measure 37, the most popular ballot measure in history.  I asked the Senator about judges, and what we could expect of him when he is elected Governor.  He said the problem is that the political system today encourages young lawyers in Oregon to take one of two tracks: practice or politics.  Because nearly every judge in Oregon is appointed, the political system is such that most judges come from a small pool of political players, while many highly-qualified attorneys are never considered.  And with a generation of control by liberal democrats, you can understand how we have come to have judges like Mary James.

So what would Governor Atkinson do?  He says he would be committed to going outside the political circles to find new judges with broad experience.  I wonder what he thinks of Jack?  Unfortunately, I didn't get to ask.  Of course, since judicial races are supposed to be "non partisan," we're probably better off not getting the party-players involved...

Jason mentioned that he recently read a great book, Give me a Break by John Stossel.  He said he's not in the business of selling books.  But since I am a shameless capitalist, here's an easy Amazon link for you:

So what brought Mr. Stossel up?  Jason wanted to talk to us about how government gets in the way of business and growth in Oregon.  He told us how one of his friends packed up his business and left the state, off to a land of lower taxes and less regulation.  He reemphasized his goal to make Oregon business-friendly again.

I asked him about an issue near and dear to us local Eugenians, the West Eugene Parkway.  And since the Parkway would ease traffic going between I-5 and the Coast, it goes beyond Eugene to become a State issue.

Jason told us about an ordeal he went through involving a church in his district.  The church wanted to expand, but for some reason, the local city council kept giving them the runaround.  Finally, the council agreed to let the church expand, but only on the condition that no weddings or funerals were to be allowed to take place there.  Yes, you read that right: have a church, but God forbid you use it for two of the most solemn church services!  What was their rationale?  Such services would create traffic problems that would inconvenience the area--even though the people of the community wanted the church expansion!

So Jason went to talk with one of his most liberal counterparts in the Senate, Frank Shields.  Shields was concerned about a similar problem: in his district, local government was giving the runaround to a church shelter and soup kitchen, because the council didn't want "those people" around causing problems.  Recognizing that local governments in both districts were going to the extreme, Senators Atkinson and Shields worked together to bypass the local governments.

What does this have to do with the West Eugene Parkway?  Well, in a nutshell, the Legislature has the power to override the Eugene City Council.  And while he is reluctant to interfere with politics on the local level, as local governments should have some degree of autonomy, he isn't afraid to use the power of the state when necessary to right a wrong at the local level.

Let's hope that the next time the Legislature is in session, we have a Senator named Jim Torrey to sponsor a bill to move forward with the West Eugene Parkway, and a Governor named Jason Atkinson ready to sign it!

This got us talking about ODOT.  All of us there seemed to agree that ODOT is a problem, and we all wanted to know what the Senator thought about it.  Here his bluntness came as a refreshing relief from the same-old-same-old of politicians.  He said flat out:

The problem with ODOT is the attitude of the organization.  As Governor, I would have the power to appoint a new director.

Big words!  And what changes in ODOT's priorities could we expect?  He says it all comes down to money, and that he and the people of Oregon need to see how much money ODOT actually needs and actually uses.  He is tired of seeing projects run double, triple, or even more over budget.  And he is sick of money being spent on projects that can't be justified.

I think it is safe to say that, when Jason Atkinson is elected Governor, there will be major, major changes with ODOT.  Thank God!  If ever there was an example of a bloated, dead-weight bureaucracy in need of explosive overhaul...

But I digress...

Another topic of interest: meth.  If there is one area where Jason let me down, it was the meth bill that put new restrictions on Sudafed.  But since virtually every other politician in Salem is equally guilty, I won't hold it against him.  On the encouraging side, he did say that he is anxious to see the actual results of the new Sudafed restrictions.  As we enter cold and flu season, the legitimate need for Sudafed will increase.  Meanwhile, meth continues to come in from Mexico.  Senator Atkinson gave us his word that, if the facts show that the Sudafed bill isn't working to combat meth, he'd be open to changing the law.

Well, we were pressed for time as Jason had to get right back on the road.  But it was great to see him again, and to meet a few other bloggers for the first time.  I'm looking forward to the weeks ahead.  One of the last things Jason said before we all parted ways was that his campaign is moving forward, and some big things are coming.

I can't wait!

Still not my mayor

Mayor Kitty Piercy cast the tie-breaking vote to permanently kill the West Eugene Parkway.  Once again, an elite cabal of five individuals has thwarted the will of the people.  This is in many ways similar to a single judge killing Measure 37.

Measure 37 is the reincarnation of Measure 7.  In both cases, an overwhelming majority of the people told the government that individual property rights matter.  And in both cases, one judge had more power than a million Oregonians.  The West Eugene Parkway has twice been approved by the people of Eugene.  And now one person has killed it.

I am so angry I can barely contain myself.  I live in the unincorporated Santa Clara region of Eugene.  That means I can't vote for or against Kitty Piercy come election time.  But my home is literally right next to where the West Eugene Parkway would have run.  It would make my life so much better.  It would help the city.  It would bring in jobs.  It would allow new businesses to come to the area.

This issue has a huge impact on me, and I get no vote.

Now it's dead.

The West Eugene Parkway was originally passed by the people TWENTY YEARS AGO.  Since then, traffic has only gotten worse.  Will it be another 20 years before a new road is built in Eugene?

The time has come for serious changes in our government, at all levels throughout the state.  We need a new Governor who will work for the people.  We need new legislators who will represent us instead of special interests.  But it goes beyond that.  We need a new Secretary of State who won't use the position to be a partisan hatchet man.  We need new County Commissioners who understand the importance of land use.  We need better voices in Washington.  And we need a new city council.  Eugene is becoming a wasteland as existing business close up shop or leave town and new business fear to tread.  The rest of the country is seeing an economic boom, yet Eugene has massive unemployment and economic malaise.

Our city council is run by environmental extremists who think that magically-defined "wetlands" are more important than roads, homes, and business.  What they don't tell you is that most of these "wetlands" were farmland a few generations ago, but have seen been redefined to stymie growth.  They think it's wrong to convert a farm to another profitable venture, but it should be mandatory to convert a farm into a swamp.

All we have to do is look across the river to see how it should be done.  Springfield is growing.  Springfield is building new roads.  Businesses are coming to Springfield.  There are jobs and new homes in Springfield.  In 20 years, Springfield will be the center of commerce in the Willamette Valley.  Eugene will just be a dried-up college town where ex-hippies go to die.

But it doesn't have to be so.  It's time to stand up and take back our government.  It's time for government to work FOR the people instead of against them.  And we need to send a message about the West Eugene Parkway.  I can think of no better way than to vote the bastards out of office.

Bumper Sticker Blues

Since Kevin Mannix made sure you can't get any more of these, how about printing up one of these for your car:

I fully support Jim Torrey in his bid for Senate.  But sometimes I sure wish he had just remained the Mayor of Eugene!

A major change coming to Oregon?

Well, we've had a few days to think about Measure 37 and the activist judge who "found" it unconstitutional.

Other blogs have handled the legal arguments.  Other blogs have analyzed the loss of individual liberty to the hands of the State.

I'm going to address a different issue: what this means for upcoming elections.  And I'm going to go out on a limb and say something controversial: this may be the best thing to happen to Oregon.

What?

A single appointed judge throwing a sucker punch to the guts of over one million voters and damaging private property rights AND the ballot initiative process is a good thing?

You betcha!  In the long run...

This case will, of course, be appealed.  And knowing what I know about the Oregon courts, my estimate is that the case will be heard by the Oregon Court of Appeals in the next few months, and a decision will be reached about a year from now.  And I fully expect the liberal activist Oregon Court of Appeals to uphold this case.

In other words, the decision, which today only affects a single county, will become state law about a month or so before the 2006 election for Governor, the Legislature, the courts, and a number of county and local offices.

And voters will be pissed.

I heard Kevin Mannix and Jason Atkinson talking on the radio about this today.  Ron Saxton was on as well, but I missed him.  Kevin and Jason both sounded pretty ticked off.  But there was a marked difference in their tones.  Kevin talked like a lawyer, ready to draft legislation, etc., to fix the problem.  And that's a good thing.  But Jason sounded like an Oregonian.  I could tell he was fighting to keep his emotion in check (also a good thing), but I got the chills hearing him talk because he captured in his criticism of the decision the spirit of the million Oregonians who, once again, had their decision cast out by a single elitist.

I think voters who hear Jason speak about Measure 37 are going to find not another politician, but someone who thinks like they do.  He is ready for change in Oregon.  And I believe the people will finally be ready as well.  If he can develop a positive message about the issues of the Measure 37 decision, a message of a change in the political culture of the State, and get his message across to the voters in the next few months, he can walk away with the primary and the general election.

And of course, it isn't just Atkinson who stands to gain from this.  Mannix will also gain, as he too is on the side of the vast majority of Oregonians.  Saxton might also pick up new supporters, depending on how he comes off.  This is a gain for the Republican Party as a whole, as the democRat Governor and the democRats in control of the Senate have been weak on Measure 37 from the beginning.  Atkinson, Mannix, and possibly Saxton will each siphon votes, not from each other, but from Kulongoski.

This could also be a huge leap for newcomers to the Oregon courts.  Jack Roberts can probably ride this one all the way to a black robe.  And if a credible conservative challenger to Justice Durhan comes along, the upcoming statewide detest of incumbent judges could result in a major shift on the Supreme Court of Oregon.  And God help any member of the Court of Appeals up for re-election in 2006 who is part of a majority that upholds the trial court decision!

Kevin Mannix: are you listening?  Now, more than ever, you have the power to enter the race for Supreme Court of Oregon and dethrone Justice Durham.  Between Measure 37 and the "live sex acts for cash is protected free expression" cases, we are overdue for an upheaval.

This will also have a huge impact on the Legislature.  I think we can expect the Oregon House to gain Republican seats, and the Oregon Senate to shift into Republican control.  Jim Torrey has probably gone from a "could defeat the incumbent" to a "could pummel the incumbent beyond recognition" candidate for State Senate.

Of course, as this is a state issue, not a federal issue, you'd expect the effect on U.S. House races to be minimal.  But the sheer outrage among Oregonians against the status quo in light of Measure 37 could be so great that even Jim Feldkamp might have a very real shot at defeating Peter DeFazio.

And what will happen come 2008?

This just might be the one single issue capable of causing enough of a shift in voter perception to put Oregon seriously into play for the 2008 Presidential election.  I'm not saying the Republicans will win the state over this.  But I am saying that, since Republicans have only lost this state to democRats by one or two percent in the last two elections, a sea change in the attitudes of voters towards the establishment (which, in Oregon, means democRats), could be more than enough to change that 1-2% from blue to red.

Friday, October 14, 2005, just might have been the day that Oregon became a conservative Republican "red state."

I may need to buy that judge a beer.

He actually reads the blogs

Yesterday, before going out for birthday celebrations, I attended a meeting with the Lane County Oregon Republican Assembly, featuring guest speaker Senator Atkinson.  He gave a presentation outlining his campaign and then answered some questions from the group.  But more importantly, during his introductory remarks, he made eye contact with me and said, "I see we have a blogger in the audience, and he even made it here on his birthday."

That means he actually read my blog, and noticed that I mentioned my birthday.

Why is this important?

It means here we have a candidate for Governor who actually pays attention to the regular folks.

Senator Atkinson discussed the difference between wanting to BE Governor and wanting to SERVE AS Governor.  Many politicians simply want to be in the office.  But others seek the office so they can serve the people through it.  I get the distinct impression that Senator Atkinson falls into the latter category.

As for the rest of his presentation, he said many of the same things he said to me earlier.  One new important topic came up: you guessed it, abortion.

What was the big news about abortion?

Senator Atkinson is pro-life.  This is no surprise: he comes from a conservative family with roots in the Church.  But he came across as less likely to alienate all but the most staunch pro-lifers (*cough* Mannix *cough*), thus, making him more electable.  Why do I say this?

First, he recognized that as a potential Governor, his ability to enforce a pro-life agenda is limited by federal constitutional law under Roe v. Wade and Planned Parenthood v. Casey.

Second, he made a point of stating that, for him, abortion is a personal issue, not a political issue.

Keep in mind, this was his message as delivered to the extremely pro-life* Oregon Republican Assembly; we have yet to see how he might tailor his message for a more diverse crowd...

I think this might be pro-life candidate who actually has a chance to win in the majority pro-choice Oregon.

Before he left, he stopped for a photograph with Cherrill Clifford, the OR-RA President, and me:

After the Senator's appearance, the OR-RA had a short meeting to discuss Eugene's State Senator, Vicki Walker.  Walker is running for the democRat nomination against incumbent Sleepy Ted.  Former Eugene Mayor Jim Torrey wants her Senate seat.

I'll have more about the Walker discussion later...

Finally, I was surprised when I was asked to come to the podium myself to talk about blogging.  I gave the audience a short rundown of what blogging is, along with a brief bio of myself and why I do what I do.  Long story short: a lot of people with a strong interest in Oregon politics now know about my website.  I guess now I'll have to put forth extra effort to ensure that I produce a quality product for them.

In other words, expect some changes here as I make the blog a little more streamlined, a little more professional.  Slight changes.  It's pretty good already, right?

* Note: I had previously used the words "pro-choice" in place of "pro-life" to describe the OR-RA.  This was purely accidental and I am happy to make this correction!

More encouraging news

Former Eugene Mayor Jim Torrey is running for the State Senate.  He will run in District 7, the seat currently held by democrat Senator Vicki Walker.  Walker is running for the democrat nomination against incumbent Governor Ted Kulongoski. 

I have no idea if Walker will run for Senate re-election if her gubernatorial bid goes nowhere.  But I think Torrey is a lock regardless.  Torrey is incredibly well respected in the area and will make a fine State Senator.  Don't be fooled by the Red Guard's statement about Walker already beating one former Mayor: Jim Torrey was probably the most popular Mayor Eugene has ever had; there is no comparison between Torrey and Jeff Miller.

If Walker bows out of the Senate race, there is no local democrat who can make a credible challenge against Torrey.  Bob Ackerman, an extreme liberal, may be popular in his own House district, but Senate 7 includes many more-conservative neighborhoods.  Ackerman will lack the broad appeal in the region enjoyed by Torrey.

But even if Walker decides to stay in her current office, Torrey will have an edge.

Walker will be battered by her challenge to Kulongoski.  She will have that big "loser" stamp on her forehead.  She is already doing poorly in her gubernatorial bid, with an incredibly incompetent performance on the Lars Larson show.  I'm not being partisan, and neither was Lars.  She was asked simple questions and gave meandering non-answers.  She came off as a doddering fool.  It all adds up to her retirement unless she gets out of the Governor's race NOW and puts forth a Herculean effort towards keeping her seat.

And in other potentially good news... I have heard from an anonymous source that long-time liberal U.S. Representative (and embarrassment to Oregon) Peter DeFazio is going to retire rather than seek re-election.  If true, Jim Feldkamp may as well pick out a new suit for his swearing in.  As long as he runs for re-election, DeFazio remains unbeatable.  But with an open seat, Feldkamp, by virtue of his impressive challenge to DeFazio in 2004, has the advantage of organization and fund-raising against an unknown democrat challenger.

But like I said, this is only potentially good news.  We'll see how that source pans out.  I'm not going to hold my breath...