Party Leadership

Kevin Mannix is resigning as head of the Oregon GOP in order focus on his run for Governor in 2006.

This is good and bad.

It is good because this marks the beginning of the end for Kevin Mannix, a miserable failure as a candidate for Governor in 2002, and a miserable failure as the head of the Oregon GOP.  We have a chance to clean out the cobwebs and bring some fresh blood to the GOP.

This is bad because, with Mannix in the primary, there is very little chance of a competent Republican winning the nomination and dethroning Governor Kulongoski.

I think we need to just forget 2006 and start thinking about 2010 and beyond.

Let's face it: in 2002, Mannix lost to Kulongoski.  Since 2002, Kulongoski has had a term as Governor and will enter the 2006 with the power and resources of an incumbent.  Since 2002, Mannix has... done some fund-raising.

Mannix couldn't win before.  He won't win now.  And barring a primary miracle, he is a lock for the nomination, because we always seem to have more than two primary challengers, and with a split vote, Mannix's core of support--about 35-40% of the GOP--is enough to push him over the top.

You see, that's why he lost in 2002.  He won the primary with about 40% of the vote among Republicans.  That means that over half of the Republican voters were turned off by Mannix.  Many of these voters didn't turn out at general election time, or even ended up supporting the democRat.

In the primary, Mannix will face Ron Saxton, a RINO who supports liberal policies as if he were a democRat.  Saxton won't win the primary.

Odds are good that at least one other Republican will jump into the circus.  But there are currently no Republicans with big name-recognition anywhere near this picture.  Since a candidate needs name-recognition (plus a good organization, which Mannix has locked up thanks to his job as GOP chair) to win anything, it's Mannix v. Kulongoski II.

It was close last time.  This time, due to the power of incumbency on one side and the lack of resume building experience on the other (being a GOP chair is a nice way to build political power, but it does NOTHING to convince voters you have leadership qualities), it will be a Kulongoski blowout.

Let's cut our losses.

The most intriguing thing I have heard recently is a rumor that Oregon House Speaker Karen Minnis might be running for Secretary of State in 2008.

Minnis is the most powerful woman in Oregon government, and the highest-ranking Republican.  Many people think she could be the great GOP hope for the future.  But she has never won a statewide election, nor held an executive position.  Running for Secretary of State in 2008 is a smart move on her part.  It's not as high profile as Governor, so it is an easier race considering her relative lack of experience.

Don't get me wrong: Minnis has experience.  But if she ran for Governor right now, she'd be running against an incumbent Governor, who was also a state Supreme Court justice, who was also Attorney General, etc.

Being Speaker is a big resume bullet, especially in Oregon, where House leadership has a lot more power than in other legislatures.  But she would be overmatched against Kulongoski.

She's still more qualified than Mannix, whose biggest accomplishment was being appointed to an assistant-level position in the Attorney General's office before losing two big statewide elections.  Why did we give Mannix the GOP chair?  Were we thinking like democRats giving their chair to Howard Dean?

But for the 2006 election cycle, the best strategy for Karen Minnis is to sit out the statewide races, get re-elected to the House, and consolidate power by continuing to build relationships with House committee chairs.  Then, in 2008, she can run for Secretary of State--an open seat with no incumbent advantage.

If Karen Minnis is Secretary of State after the 2008 election, then she has a MUCH better resume for her race for the top office in 2010: she'll be in an executive-branch office in direct line with the Governor, and she'll have won a major statewide election.  With Kulongoski out of the picture thanks to term limits, she will face no incumbent.  Looking ahead to 2010, there really aren't any democRat powerhouse candidates waiting to fill the void.  The current democRat Secretary of State is old and has health problems.  Plus, he really isn't all that charismatic.  Would he run?  Maybe.  Could he win?  Doubtful.  Congressional leaders?  They are in the same boat Minnis is in now--great legislative experience, no executive leadership credentials.  The Attorney General?  He's also pretty old, hasn't made much of a name for himself as AG, and is likely just to retire altogether.  It looks like 2010 could be a good year for a GOP gubernatorial candidate.

Put Karen Minnis on the ballot in 2010, after serving as Secretary of State, and she has one other big advantage.  Karen is a woman Republican in a state full of democRat feminists.  Even though the idea of a Republican Governor is poison to half the population of the state, it only takes a few votes siphoned from the left to put a Republican in the Governor's office.  A woman candidate will surely draw at least a few votes from the democRats, as some feminist ideologues will put gender ahead of party.

All things considered, IF Kulongoski is re-elected in 2006, and IF Karen Minnis wins Secretary of State in 2008, then WITHOUT DOUBT, Karen Minnis wins the Governor's race come 2010.

What exactly should we conclude from this?

Karen Minnis is a power player.  She wants to be Governor.  She can't get there in 2006.  Her first chance will be 2010.  Therefore, she doesn't want an incumbent in 2010.  That means she is happy to see Kevin Mannix LOSE.  Furthermore, she will need the loyalty of the GOP party establishment in order to move up to Secretary of State.

Could we see a race where top GOP leaders are happy to see their candidate lose?  Would they even go so far as to ensure the loss by withholding critical support?  If top GOP leaders have common sense and look at the big picture, they will save their resources for a battle they can win.  2006 isn't it.

And this leaves the question: with Mannix stepping down as GOP chair, who will replace him?

Will the new GOP chair be one of Mannix's comrades, who will pour everything into 2006?  Or will the new GOP chair be more of a long-term visionary, and hold back in 2006, reserving resources for the 2010 race we might actually win?

Who knows?

This much is certain.  If I were looking ahead to a career in Oregon politics, I'd be a lot more comfortable lining up behind Karen Minnis and looking to the future, than casting my lot with Kevin Mannix today.

The battle for GOP chair will be the determining factor.  Look for a coup, and a shift in party loyalty away from Mannix.

Comments

[Jeff]

Of course, this all goes into the ashcan if Kulongoski, who is running on a pretty boring record himself, manages to lose...to Mannix.

[Gullyborg]

hmmm... economy getting better (albeit slowly), no real crisis, no real failures... all adds up to no reason for a populace that all to often is satisfied with the status quo to vote out the incumbent...

and considering all that, with Oregon's liberals still managing to come together and give Oregon's 7 electoral votes to John Kerry, the WORST candidate for President in my lifetime... do you REALLY think a Republican who is more right-wing than President Bush, who has never won a statewide election, to defeat an incumbent liberal Governor?

Right...

[hilsy]

While I often do not agree with you, I do enjoy reading your blog and I find this particular entry to be a very accurate analysis of the current and future political climate.

I still think that if either Saxton or Roberts had dropped out of the 2002 primary, the one left would have beat both Mannix and Kulongoski.

The wild card I throw out to you is the possibility of democrats breaking ranks and at least causing Kulongoski a fight in the primary if not outright beating him in the primary. I know this relatively far-fetched, but I'm not sure of the consequences for the general election if it were to become reality.

[Gullyborg]

There is certainly some dissatisfaction with Kulongoski among democrats. But that dissatisfaction is largely coming from the most left-wing ideologues, who are powerful in primaries but less significant in the general election.

The question is: who among democrats is powerful enough to seriously challenge Kulongoski, but at the same time, independent enought to break party loyalty and challenge the incumbent?

I can't see anyone pulling it off.

Ron Wyden and Peter DeFazio are both part of that extreme-progressive wing--but I think both men are loyal enough to the party (and introspective enough to realize that they are better off staying in their safe congressional seats) to risk it.

The SecState and AG are both extremely loyal to Ted.

There are a number of State Senators who might have visions of grandeur, but I can't forsee any of them being willing to risk their Senate majority status in taking on an entrenched incumbent.

So I just can't see any sort of serious primary challenge.

That said, a coup on the democrat side early on, leading to an ugly primary loss for Kulongoski, could pave the way for Mannix to actually win.

That would really shake things up. And I think the outcome--a win for Mannix, the most despised (by the left) candidate for Governor that Oregon has even seen--is so predictable, that any attempt to break ranks and challenge the incumbent will be met with swift force, possibly even with the national DNC jumping in.

Not gonna happen.

[Coyote]

Actually many of your assertions are wrong.

One thing to understand is that we did not give the chairmanship to Mannix. He was given that spot because the liberal wing of the party in cahoots with Karl Rove ran a high pressure coup to oust Perry Atkinson who was not guaranteed to play ball with Karl (you know the same guy that is advising the President to not deal with the illegal alien issue).

Also Mannix was much stronger than you know last time (just hold on... i do not support Mannix if you have ever read my blog you'd know that I am not a mannix supporter these days). Tom Cox the libercrat candidate pulled 8% of the vote which was enough to split the vote.

The problem with Mannix is that he is cookie on social issues and very liberal on fiscal issues. He is also seen by the general public as a total goof these days.

I also know many folks in party leadership that are secretly glad he is out of his post and are going to jump ship on his gubernatorial race.

One other thing to keep in mind is that Lars Larson threw all his weight behind Mannix last time and that the movement conservative money left Jack Roberts. Otherwise you would be hailing Governor Jack right now.

No Mannix will not win the nomination this time and Saxton will lose as well if a competent third person gets in.

If Jason Atkinson gets in he will suck the ever living life out of Mannix's support from the social conservatives and he will raise more money than Saxton. Which is the most important issue once Mannix is gone.

At that point Jason will lose in a gallant try for governor. Karen will win SoS and next time around we will have a Republican SoS and a Republican gov.

Selah

[Coyote]

Although... I do agree with your conclusion in that Mannix is NOT the one to line up behind.