The Governor's Race

Although it is early yet, I have things to say about the Oregon Governor 2006 election.  Incumbent "sleepy" Ted "taxandgougeme" Kulongoski, unpopular both among opposition Republicans and his own democRat party, has announced he is running for re-election.

I do fear that the power of incumbency will allow Ted to overcome his obstacles and win re-election.  However, there is always a chance that the challenger will prevail, and a lot can happen in the next year.

First off, Ted will probably face some stiff competition in his own party primary.  I would love to see a serious challenge.  I would also love to see Ted beat off his challengers in a close, but bloody, race.  If a challenger beats him in the primary, he or she (people are talking about Senator Vicki Walker as a possibility) would have momentum to take on the Republican.  And considering that democRat challengers are likely to be far more liberal than Ted (the extreme left are the democRats least satisfied with his first term so far), that means potential danger for conservatives in Oregon.  But if Ted wins, he gains nothing as the incumbent is expected to win.  But a close contest with a lot of mudslinging will fracture support within the party, and lead to key members of the activist left tuning out of the general election.

As for the Republican side, I am pleased to announce that there is a real conservative alternative to Kevin Mannix.  Mannix, as you may recall, was our nominee in 2002.  He lost.  And he has done nothing to shore up support since then.  Sure, he has been the state GOP chair, but all that has really meant is lining his own pockets rather than winning over real voters.  But the punditry talks about him as the presumptive nominee, and if correct, this is bad.  Very bad.  Kulongoski may be unpopular, but Mannix is downright hated among swing voters.  I also have a personal grudge against Mannix as he and his staff have acted in a manner I felt was unbecoming of the GOP party chair.  I am referring to the assault on the "Kitty Piercy is not my Mayor" campaign, in which he and his cronies had some harsh words for yours truly.  Not a good way to win over grassroots support picking on popular local conservative bloggers.

So I am ready to endorse any conservative other than Mannix.

And the good news, Senator Jason Atkinson is running as well!

So as it stands, we have Mannix and Atkinson representing the conservative wing of the Republican Party, and RINO Ron Saxton representing the more liberal wing.

Again, this is bad.  In a three way primary, Mannix probably has the edge over Atkinson and Saxton, just as he did last time around over Jack Roberts and Ron Saxton.  Mannix won the nomination last time around with under 40% of the Republican Party actually supporting him.  No wonder a number of moderate Republicans either didn't vote, or else voted for someone other than Mannix.  Over 60% of the Party wanted to see either Roberts or Saxton over Mannix, yet Mannix was our nominee.  This mustn't happen again.

We need to convince one of the other two people to leave the race.  Ideally, we'd get Mannix to bow out, but he is too entrenched to be bullied around.  So that means either Atkinson or Saxton has to go, so that the other can beat Mannix and go on to win the general election.

Atkinson is conservative.  Saxton is not.  It's obvious who has to go.

If the primary comes down to a two-way race between Mannix and anyone else, Mannix will get his usual 40%, and the rest will go to the other guy.  If Mannix and Atkinson are the only two people on the primary ballot, Atkinson is our nominee.

Can Atkinson win the general election?

He has a better chance than Mannix, that's for sure.  Mannix has so alienated moderate swing voters, that democRats with names like Hitler, Stalin, or Hussein are more likely to win the swing vote than Mannix.  I am not exaggerating.  Atkinson is a fresh face.  If he runs a good campaign, he can be competitive with the swing vote.  And in Oregon, more so than other states, the swing vote is everything.  In the last gubernatorial election, the democRat won by a tiny percentage.  In the last two Presidential elections, Bush lost by mere thousands of votes.  A tiny shift one way or the other in the swing voters tips the whole election.

What if it comes down to Atkinson against a fresh democRat challenger?  Well, that changes everything.  If someone like Walker defeats Kulongoski in the primary, two things happen: the democRat challenger shifts leftward, and also gains momentum.  The two could cancer each other out: a more liberal democRat may alienate moderate swing voters.  But I suspect this wouldn't happen, especially if Walker wins the primary.  Walker is a woman, and a huge chunk of the moderate swing vote is women.  That could spell disaster for the GOP, especially if our nominee is a real conservative.  The so-called "right to choose" is going to play a big role in this election with the expected shifts on the U.S. Supreme Court.  If Walker is the democRat nominee, we may be better off with a RINO like Saxton, who might offend the conservative base, but could better defend the moderate swing vote against a pro-chose woman.  As much as I would prefer an Atkinson to a Saxton, I'd rather have a Saxton than a liberal democRat.

But I'm a gambling man, and an eternal optimist.  I think we have a shot at pulling off something big in Oregon this time around.  The national economy is improving, but Oregon continues to be near the bottom.  People need jobs.  People want tax cuts, pro-business leadership, infrastructure, and pro-growth land-use in Oregon.  It's time for people to re-think the environmental policies and cut through the bureaucracy.  So I am going to throw all my support behind Senator Atkinson, and hope that he wins the right to take on a bruised and battered Governor Kulongoski.  That's our best hope for a better tomorrow in Oregon.

Support Senator Jason Atkinson for Oregon Governor!

Comments

[torridjoe]

Nice writeup, honestly--but to say Bush lost by mere thousands...there were around 67 of those thousands. Considering it was roughly the same percentage, would you say Bush just barely beat Kerry nationally?

[hilsy]

I differ with you in your analysis of the Republican race. I think the conservative vote will split between Atkinson and Mannix, though I'm not willing to bet at this point who will end with more votes between the two. I think that frees up Saxton to win the primary in an upside-down version of the last governor's race. If so, I think Saxton pull a lot of swing voters and beat Ted or any other democrat that will now run.

just my 2 cents

[Coyote]

hilsy,

sorry but it will not turn out that way. saxton finished third last time and will probably finish third again.

the only thing that saved him last time is that the "five families" of the republican party primary machine wanted to send a message to jack roberts and kevin was too wacky to carry that message so they had to go with saxton.

that is not going to happen this time.

although i am going to go deeper into the history of that last race and how it bodes for this upcoming campaign.

nice post gully!

[Sailor Republica]

Well, that makes 4 blogs supporting Atkinson. Can we get more Oregon Blogs to support Atkinson? Remember, Blogs CAN BE A FORCE, and when combined with other forces...it can really turn out right.

[Gullyborg]

Torrid: yes, I will concede that Kerry had a bit more breathing room than what I suggested, but Gore only beat Bush by 7,000 votes in what should have been a runaway for him. Oregon is very, very close.

As for "Blogs for Atkinson," I have too much on my plate at this time to take on another project, but if one of you wants to create, I will help out as much as I can. Consider me a charter member.

[Sailor Republica]

Well, I plan to create the Atkinson Blog Network somehow...it's just a matter of actually getting the time up to DO this stuff, to which now that I'm off for a month...I can do.

[Bob Mulroy]

How is he more electable than Mannix? I want a free-market, private property Republican next term at all costs.

[Gullyborg]

Mannix is damaged goods. He may have been the GOP nominee, but he never got a majority of the GOP vote--that means a majority of the GOP wanted someone else. Then he failed to beat Kulongoski when they were both running for an open seat. Now Kulongoski is an incumbent. Even though so many people are disappointed with him, he has a lot of entrenched power now, especially relative to someone he already beat once. A fresh face from the GOP will almost automatically be more formidable against Kulongoski than Mannix could be.

Also, Mannix is very divisive. Even though his stands on some core conservative issues are no different from many other Republicans, his ability to win over more moderate voters is hampered by his utter lack of charisma. Many Republicans are very pro-life, for instance. But Mannix, much more so than other conservatives, manages to totally alienate and upset the pro-choice movement. That's a really big problem in Oregon, where a solid majority of voters believe that women should be able to have abortions at least to some exent.

[Gullyborg]

see this:

http://nwrepublican.blogspot.com/2005/08/riley-research-poll-is-out.html

considering Mannix and Saxton have been working non-stop since the last election to position themselves for this one, the poll does not bode well for either one.

again, Saxton only has a shot if the democRats manage to oust Sleepy Ted in the primary and replace him with a much more far-left candidate.

give Atkinson 2 months of campaigning, and his numbers will shoot up, at the expense of the other two. what does that mean?

MOMENTUM.

People like a positive trend. You can be in third place, but if you are rising steadily while the top two are falling, you have the advantage.