Why I would still support McCain if nominated

Unless he did something really stupid in the next 10 months, I would vote for McCain in November should he be the GOP nominee.  Two big things:

1) While McCain has serious flaws and is generally not what I want in the President, he is still manifestly better suited to run this country than Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama.

2) If conservatives "sit out" or give "protest votes" to third party, independent, or write-in candidates, then conservatives make themselves irrelevant.

Two parts to the second thing above:

A) If McCain loses, the left will see it not as a victory over McCain, or a victory over a moderate opponent.  The left will see it as a complete repudiation of the Republican Party, and they will link that to conservatism.  They will believe it is a mandate to implement every liberal dream they ever had - on a national scale.  Oregon is a microcosm of this.  In 2006, moderate Ron Saxton lost to liberal Kulongoski.  The Oregon democrats made gains in the already-liberal Senate and seized the House.  The 2007 session saw the passage of every liberal wet dream, save one (universal health care).  And they will try again with the health care this year.  Had conservatives rallied around Saxton, things today would be VERY different in Oregon.  At best, he would have won.  At worst, he would have still lost but conservatives would have been energized enough to keep the House.  We had two incumbent Republicans lose by only a few hundred votes.  Their victories would have kept the Legislative Assembly in check.  The same thing holds true nationally.  If the GOP is energized to vote for the nominee, whoever he is, we can take back the House and keep the Senate competitive.  Even with a moderate President, a Republican House will do a lot to keep us on a conservative track.

B) If McCain wins, and against the super-polarizing Hillary Clinton, he might win even without the conservative base, then the conservative movement is essentially dead.  We will have no sway with McCain if we don't support his candidacy.  If he can win without us, he is free to write us off forever.  He will be free to lead with moderate-liberal ideas, and all the pressure from the right will mean nothing to him.  GWB may have been a wishy-washy moderate on many issues, but when the right spoke up - Harriet Miers and Dubai ports - he stopped and listened.  And when the right spoke up on amnesty, the Senate stopped and listened enough to block the McCain/Kennedy bill.  But if McCain is elected despite the efforts of the right, the right can forget about ever holding power again.  Amnesty?  The Senate bill will move, the House will be the chamber under pressure, and President McCain will sign it into law.  Ditto any other liberal idea McCain ever had in the Senate.

Either way - President McCain or President Obama - the conservative movement dies IF it decides to abandon the GOP over McCain.

But let's say we all get fired up and pledge full support to McCain (if he is the nominee, that is; we can still hope for Romney until then).  Then, with the base motivated, McCain can win in November - and he will still be under political pressure to support conservative ideas.  The conservative movement can make the claim "McCain is only President because WE supported him to pass OUR agenda."  There is a very real power that comes from a mandate.  In the first GWB term, a lot of folks believed he had no mandate because of the 2000 election.  That really forced him into working with democrats a lot more than any of us Republicans liked.  A clear victory in 2000 would have completely changed the dynamic in D.C.  Likewise, a big victory with conservative support is a mandate for Republicans, a mandate for conservative policy.  But a weak win, without conservative support, is more like a mandate for moderate-liberalism.  It is a mandate for... exactly what some of us fear McCain embodies.  It is a mandate for McCain to reach out to liberals, independents, and swing-votes.  It is a mandate for McCain to work with Hillary and Obama.

So the conservative movement NEEDS to keep itself relevant.  We NEED to be a force in this election - and voting for a fringe candidate or sitting out in protest does NOTHING to make us more relevant.

So, if McCain is the nominee, and barring him doing something really stupid between now and November, he gets my vote.  But until McCain is the nominee, by all means, join me in supporting a better candidate in Mitt Romney.

Comments

[Coyote]

A couple of notes (thoughts). I'll try to take these in order as you articulated them above.

1) Conservatives did rally around Saxton. He was a flawed candidate who could not draw the independents. Actually Mannix as an unabashed conservative came closer to beating Kulongoski the time before. I think it shows us what would likely happen if we nominate the almost-democrat John McCain.

2) Oregon lost some legislative races because they had some bad candidates and actually the Saxton coat tails would probably be indicative of any potential "coat tails" that we would see from McCain. That is that there would not be any.

3) I think if McCain wins against Hillary we are essentially dead anyway. McCain has taken pride in stabbing Republicans while working with Democrats. The problem is that the few conservatives we have in the House and Senate would be stuck between fighting the Democrats and their friends in the MSM and fighting a liberal President also with the power of the MSM.

He would essentially be able to pull off every libaral issue he sees fit without any legitimate power to argue against him.

Global warming treaties? Who will stop him? Boehner? McCain and the Democrats would steam roll over him.

Squishy judges? Who would stop him? No one.

Bringing captive terrorists to American soil in order to try them under our Constitutional laws? The Democrats and the left would herald him as a great man of civil rights and ANYONE who tried to speak against him would be pinned to the wall. Again, there is no place for loyal opposition to go.

Of course he would be much more emboldened to enact his amnesy legislation and he would steam roll the country over that.

4) I just don't buy the notion that if conservatives support McCain and McCain wins then somehow he will change his stripes and actually respect conservatives. It would be totally out of character for him.

Very few people have the ability to change their character after say 28 years of age. McCain is way to old to change his now. He has not shown anywhere in his history that he has that capability. In fact instead of change (as Romney has, and heck as Saxton had) he has become more obstinate and becomoe worse.

The history of his behavior is in direct conflict with the hopes you hold above.

It would be like believing the scorpion, who talked the frog into giving him a ride across the pond, is actually going to change?

Just what can you (you in general) offer to those of us to hang our hats on that would indicate otherwise?

Heck he is STILL complaining that his amnesty package was not amnesty. That tells me he has not only NOT internalized that problem but has fully decided that he was right and will do it again.

At least with Romney on something like abortion, he has said he was "wrong" before. McCain can't even get himself to say that about something as pivotal as immigration.

Now toss in his discomfort for conservative judges and we have a real problem.

McCain is stuck and Mark Levin touches on it here:
http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZGY2ZDg4YTcxYWRlMWYwNzJlZDUzNDczYTVmNzZmNDE=

He questions how McCain will run in November. Does McCain try to recapture the conservative votes by running to the right? Obama has already signalled how the Democrats will work to kill McCain if he tries that.

So the alternative is to try to run to the left. And where does that leave us?

I just don't see the upside to a McCain nomination anywhere.

In fact the further down this road we get the more I find myself unable to vote for the guy.

I have my Washington State caucus meeting this weekend. I fully intend, as my districts precinct captain, to say that if McCain wins then I will not be able to support him in the general.

It may mean that I will be asked to resign my position.

Not a good way for a McCain campaign to start out.

I know that I am but one person. But get enough anecdotes to link together and you get a general election problem.

I keep going back to the Bob Dole candidacy. I remember saying over and over and over at the time that you can't have the party bosses simply picking the candidate and telling the grass roots to "suck it up" and vote for him. It wouldn't work.

Well I am leveling the caution again. If McCain wins the nomination it won't be enough of an argument from the establishmente types to simply tell the conservatives to "suck it up."

It don't work that way. Never has.

[Peter]

Romney bitches like nobody's business...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r1Hn2tTVjRo

See…that’s video proof right there…

[Gullyborg]

All good point. But two things:

1) I agree McCain will not "become" conservative just because conservatives support him. I suggest that if conservatives support McCain and he is elected, he will respond to conservatives better than if conservatives bail on him and he still wins. If we actively oppose him in the general, he might still win. The more the right spurns him, the more he can appeal to moderates and liberals. When elected, he is most likely to give access to and accept counsel from the constituencies that gave him the most support. Would you like to have a seat at the dinner table? Then you better bring some food along, because politics is pot luck.

2) If the choices in the general were McCain v Lieberman, or McCain v Bob Kerry, or McCain v some other democrat who can appeal to a broad base including moderates and some Republicans, then bailing on McCain might not be so bad. But that won't be the case. At best, the democrats will nominate Hillary Clinton. At worst, Barack Obama. Obama has a 100% liberal voting record, is clueless on national security, and would make the country take a serious hard left turn. McCain may be a RINO, but would you honestly rather have Obama in charge of the nation?

And if you think "well, if either one will screw things up, better it be the democrats who take the blame..." well, guess what? If Obama is elected and the country goes to hell, the media WILL succeed in blaming it all on Republican obstruction and the evil racist white bigots in the GOP. Democrats never get blamed for anything. The dot com bubble burst under Bill Clinton. In Clinton's last year of office, the NASDAQ went from over 5,000 to under 2,000. Did anyone blame the economy on Clinton? NO! The media has succeeded in perpetuating the myth that Bill Clinton presided over the greatest period of economic growth ever. Same will happen for Barack Obama, even if we enter another great depression. All blame will go to the GOP. Period.

So again, barring something totally stupid, I will absolutely support McCain if nominated.

I just don't want him nominated.

[NotYourDaddy]

Great post, Gullyborg. I totally agree.

The other thing we have to consider is what it will mean to have a Democrat administration in Washington, rather than a Republican one, if the conservatives bail in the election. The Democrats are going to hang together no matter which socialist wins their nomination, while the Republicans and other conservatives squabble and bicker and walk off in a huff because they can’t all agree that the lesser of two evils is still better than letting the country go to the socialists.

It isn't just the president we're electing, it's all the presidential appointees as well. Do we really want to hand over all the federal agencies to socialist-leaning liberals for the next 4-8 years? How about the Supreme Court justices that will be appointed during that time?

Mrs. Clinton and Obama have both promised to bring all the troops home within a couple of years. At least McCain would rather fight the terrorists over there than over here. There's something to be said for that...

I don't like McCain, and I hope he doesn't get the nomination. But I will support whoever ends up running against whichever socialist the Democrats nominate. Even if it is McCain. Because he isn't as bad as they are. IMHO, we can't afford to hand the country over to the socialists just to make a political point. The cost is just too high.

[Rivrdog]

"IMHO, we can't afford to hand the country over to the socialists just to make a political point."

NotYourDaddy, you are correct, we can't afford that, but it WILL happen this time, because a full generation, plus half their parents, believe that we are destined to adopt that un-Constitutional philosophy, and essentially throw out the Constitution.

Nope, it has come past the tipping point, which you guys are having a fine argument about here. I say let the worst of the Socialists get elected, hell, maybe even vote for him, and when he totally screws up the country, and over half of the voters see throught the brown fog of the MSM that the socialists indeed trashed the nation, then we take it back, either at the ballot box or otherwise.

It's late, it's much too late, my brothers.

[NotYourDaddy]

You may be right, Rivrdog, but I, for one, will not go gentle into that good night. -- I'll rage, rage against the dying of the light! (Apologies to Dylan Thomas.)

I'll keep fighting the impending wave of socialism with all my tiny might, screaming out to anyone who'll listen, and even those who won't. Because socialism is a fine system for people who'd rather whine than take responsibility for their lives and, if we're willing to give up the country to the socialists because we can't have the candidate we want, well, then I guess we deserve what we get.

It's hard to muster up the will to fight for a cause as weak as McCain (especially if he takes Huckleberry as his running mate), but I will not cede the country quietly to the socialists without doing whatever I can, however little that may be.

There are still as many conservatives as liberals -- if not more. But the liberals will rally around whoever wins the nomination, and they'll get out the vote. If the conservatives are too jaded to rally against them, then you're right; the game is already lost. But I still harbor the hope that enough of us are determined to wrest the country out of the grasp of socialism that we'll convince the others not to hand it over them.

[Gullyborg]

You know, a lot of far right die hard Bircher types all thought that Bill Clinton would make America see just how bad liberalism is and we would have a conservative nirvanah as soon as he left town.

yeah, that worked.

37% of the people are going to vote democrat NO MATTER WHAT because that is just what they do.

37% of the people are going to vote republican NO MATTER WHAT because that is just what they do.

20% are going to vote for whichever candidate looks better.

That means about 6% of the population is actually going to care about the issues and which candidate will do what to the country... and then vote without blind allegiance to a party that may or may not actually represent their values.

The odds of there being some sort of massive upheaval in opposition to 8 years of socialism is just absurd. It didn't happen in 1996 or 2000. It didn't happen in 1964. It didn't happen after the first, second, or third term of FDR. And it won't happen after Barack Obama.

In fact, if Obama is elected and the country does go to hell, the MSM will just say it is all because of the irreparable damage of the Bush administration followed by obstructionism from the GOP minority combined with America's latent racism. They would never blame it on Obama, democrats, or liberals.

So if Obama is elected and the country goes to shit... well...

37% of the country will vote democrat and 20% will vote for the candidate who looks the best. So as long as the DNC comes up with charismatic Obama types, they will win. Even after Obama destroys the nation.

[Rogue and Poet]

You know the funny thing is that that 6% would vote for Ron Paul if they could.

[Mandy]

He has proven to be a hypocrite like most of the candidates. If you want to see hypocrisy in him, go to http://www.hypocrisy.com, and read an article on McCain. It's an eye opener.

[Mandy]

He has proven to be a hypocrite like most of the candidates. If you want to see hypocrisy in him, go to http://www.hypocrisy.com, and read an article on McCain. It's an eye opener.

[Right as Rain]

We can eat our young, like the Democrats used to do, or we can see the cup as being 80% full and support McCain to the extent we're capable.

No, he's not perfect. Neither was President Reagan--he signed an abortion bill in California, he approved tax increases in California, and he pushed for, and got and signed, and amnesty bill.

It seems as though our side has spent the last month or so giving ammunition to the other side for the fall. True, they'd have gotten some of it anyway, but they can quote Republicans saying nasty things about McCain. And let's face it, McCain WILL be the GOP nominee.

[anonymous]

McCain: A Democrat in Republican clothing!

I'm a staunch Republican and Mitt Romney supporter, however if McCain gets the nomination I will vote for Osama, I mean Obama. Not because I like him, but because right now he seems to me, to be the lesser of the three evils that comprise the axis of evil (Clinton, McCain & Obama).

[NotYourDaddy]

Right as Rain, you're wrong as rat poison on this one. Obama is way to the left of even the Clintons. He is a true socialist. Sure, he's sincere and charismatic and clean cut, and seems like a really nice guy. But don't be fooled. He's dangerous!

How about if McCain picked Thompson as his running mate? McCain is getting kind of old (in more ways than one)....

[NotYourDaddy]

Oops! Sorry, Right as Rain, I was actually responding to anonymous' post. I withdraw my comment to you. (However, it still applies to anonymous.)

[DirtCrashr]

I can vote for him, simply as an act of penance for utter stupidity and wanton youthful foolishness - the vote for Carter.
I don't want to consider the absolute hell that would be imminent under either potential Democrat candidate, who's name will remain unspoken.

[Rivrdog]

McCain could pick anyone he wanted, the Veep doesn't matter until the President croaks.

Bush was a weak conservative, Cheney a strong conservative. Did Cheney make a difference? Vice President is the weakest Federal elected office in the Constitution, and it was designed that way by the Founders.

Conservatives MUST find a way to unite and get past the religious and cultural issues which divide us so badly. Only THEN will we have a chance to rescue the Constitution from it's Death of a Thousand Cuts.

The naysayer rests...

[NotYourDaddy]

"McCain could pick anyone he wanted, the Veep doesn't matter until the President croaks."

Well, McCain is getting up there...

[Joe12Pack]

Spot on, Gully. To say that I'm underwhelmed by the prospect of McCain as president would be quite an understatement, but the alternatives are far worse. Not only would I vote for him, but I'll actively support his candidacy.

It does seem awfully familiar to a certain Oregon gubernatorial race a couple years back and I couldn't disagree more with Coyote on this: "Conservatives rallied around Saxton"? He of all people should see the fallacy of that statement. If that was Oregon conservatives supporting their nominee, I'd hate to see how they'd treat someone they didn't like.

Please, lets not have a repeat of Oregon's last election on a much larger scale with exponentially higher stakes.

[Spank That Donkey]

McSellout rated C+ by the NRA, will sign the exact amnesty bill he authored in the Senate, certainly veto tax cuts as he voted in the Senate, and not support a National Traditional Marriage Amendment, as per his votes in the Senate.

If past history is any indication of future performance, we're screwed!

[Joe12Pack]

Back in my day a C+ was a passing grade, denoting very slightly above average performance. A's & B's are preferable, but how do you suppose Obama & Hillary scored on the Second Amendment? I'd assume they'd both be in NRA summer school trying like hell to avoid being held back.

[jack]

McCain is such a paradox to me I never could understand the man. I mean he stand so well against the Jihadist that would do us harm, but he seems so willing to turn over the Southwest to the La reconquista.

At this time it looks as if my support for John will be directly in proportion to how much I fear the Democratic candidate.

[lustylogger]

Although it is clear that Hillary and Obama are totally in the tank to bring one-world godless green socialist rule to America, it is also clear that the GOP powerbrokers do not care. I'm sick of lesser of evils elections and will sit this one out and repel boarders when they come to my door.