A Prediction...

Hillary will win Pennsylvania.  Obama has simply burned himself too badly there.  But Obama will still win the nomination.  His national lead at this point is simply too great, with too little opportunity for Hillary to catch up.

What does this mean?  It means Pennsylvania will be a key battleground state ripe for Republican pick-up.  Voters there will not be too keen to support the democrat nominee, and a good Republican team can snatch it - making the Electoral College pretty much a done deal for the GOP.

And so, my bold prediction: Vice President Tom Ridge...

Ridge is an ideal choice for McCain.  He is highly qualified: he has more Congressional experience than Obama, plus he is a twice-elected Governor of a large swing-state - a state that Obama needs to win and a state where Obama has "stepped in it."  Like Obama, Ridge is Harvard-educated and is an attorney.  But unlike Obama, Ridge is:

• A practicing attorney with real-world experience as a prosecutor;
• A board member of a Dow Jones corporation;
• A successful private-sector entrepreneur;
• A decorated war hero and the first enlisted Vietnam veteran to serve in Congress;
• Oh, and let's not forget, the first Director of the Department of Homeland Security and the single most important person in the re-shaping of national security following the attacks of 9/11.

Ridge also happens to be a senior adviser to McCain.  He and McCain get along well and see eye-to-eye on many issues.  Ridge has ruffled the GOP base by being pro-choice.  You could say that he, like McCain, is a "maverick" Republican.

Now, some folks out there on the far right say they will sit out, vote Constitution Party, or even vote for Obama if McCain should choose anyone other than a traditional right-wing conservative running mate.  Well... I don't think McCain really cares.  Nor do I think he needs that support to win the election.  For every right-winger he turns off, he gains at least one more moderate.  Adding someone like Ridge will broaden that moderate appeal and cut into the democrat base - after all, there are quite a few voters out there who only vote democrat because they are afraid that Republicans will force women into back-alley abortions.  An openly pro-choice Republican on the ticket could reshape electoral demographics in a way that favors the GOP.  And when push comes to shove, a lot of the Ann Coulter crowd will come around and vote McCain, if only to prevent someone like Obama from becoming Commander-in-Chief during the War on Terror and appointing as many as five Supreme Court justices.  Would a pro-life voter sacrifice the Supreme Court and guarantee 30 more years of Roe v. Wade just to make a point about the ticket?  Plus, McCain gets to run his ticket as the ticket of two war heroes, two men who fought in the Vietnam war when Obama's friend in the Weather Underground was blowing up buildings and killing Americans back home.

But most importantly, Tom Ridge on the ballot means Pennsylvania is a Red State.  In order to win the Electoral College, the democrats already need to convert either Florida or Ohio - not an easy task against McCain, who is popular in both those states - and do it without losing any of their own ground.  Take Pennsylvania away from the democrats, and suddenly the Electoral College really comes down to the democrats winning both Florida and Ohio.  Jeb Bush has the popularity and power in Florida to ensure it stays Red, even without appearing on a ballot.  That means all the GOP needs to do is hold Ohio - and McCain already looks strong in Ohio, without even campaigning yet.

Yep, you heard it here: Vice-President Tom Ridge.  You may as well start printing up McCain-Ridge bumper stickers, lawn signs and T-shirts now...

Comments

[Independent Thinker]

You wrote:

"after all, there are quite a few voters out there who only vote democrat because they are afraid that Republicans will force women into back-alley abortions. An openly pro-choice Republican on the ticket could reshape electoral demographics in a way that favors the GOP"

Bingo. And... remember that a lot of the hard core Hillary supporters are ANGRY that Obama is "stealing" the nomination away from their annointed Saint Hillary. They are even madder about this than the far-right is mad about McCain. If Ridge is on the ticket and gives the feminazis a reason to think the GOP is shifting to pro-choice, I could TOTALLY see some crossover votes to encourage the GOP to continue becoming more pro-choice and to spite Obama. After all, a number of polls out there indicate that something like 20% or so of the dems will not support Obama in the general election. That's the feminazis. They'll hand the election over to the GOP if only they can have a valid excuse - like supporting a pro-choice candidate - in order to shake off accusations of racism.

[Gullyborg]

I should probably also mention that Ridge is the kind of person McCain would like to see become President after him... setting up the maverick dynasty...

[Independent Thinker]

So who does Obama choose as his running mate to counter? Can he find a running mate who will guarantee taking Ohio, Florida, or perhaps something the GOP thinks is "safe"? Or can he mend fences and run with Hillary to unite the left?

[Gullyborg]

Obama would be wise to avoid "uniting" with Hillary. Having Hillary on the ballot, even as VP, unites the right and undoes most of the damage McCain has done among the far right.

If Ridge is on the ballot, Pennsylvania is lost. No recovery there. So Obama would need to focus on other states. The problem is, the other states he could win from the GOP don't add up to enough Electoral Votes unless he can somehow pick up several smaller states. For instance, if he could somehow take the Carolinas and Georgia together, that would be huge. But the best shot for that was John Edwards, and he is old news.

Another option is go for a balanced ticket. He could choose Bill Richardson, and get the "gravitas" and a running mate who is more conservative on some things like guns. But I don't think Obama will EVER win over any gun owners now, even with Ted Nugent on the ballot.

I also don't think Obama wants to have another "first" on the same ballot as him, and Richardson would be the first Hispanic on a party ticket. That could really send a signal to voters that the democrat party has truly become the party for minorities, and not the party for all of America. He needs to choose a "white bread" running mate - someone like Evan Bayh or James Webb.

But whoever he chooses is immaterial if he can't hold Pennsylvania and take either Ohio or Florida. So I predict he will choose a candidate geared towards one of those two Red States, pour all of his money into the other Red State, and pray to Allah, I mean, to God, that he can someone win both states to counter the loss of Pennsylvania and win the Electoral College.

So...

Obama will run with Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown, Ohio Governor Ted Strickland, or Florida Senator Bill Nelson.

Given these choices, Obama will choose Strickland. Strickland gives him balance with an executive. Strickland also is a former minister, helping him win over evangelical voters who feel disenfranchised by McCain and who will oppose pro-choice Ridge. Most importantly, it means he can possibly win Ohio easily, making it basically a trade for Pennsylvania. That means the battle shifts back to Florida, and we get ready for a 2008 repeat of 2000. To counter the campaigning power and fundraising of Jeb Bush, Obama will turn to Al Gore. Gore will spend the hottest months of the year and hurricane season campaigning in Florida, working up democrats who believe the 2000 election was stolen. In exchane, President Obama would make Gore our UN Ambassador and push to make him the next UN Secretary General.

That is my prediction:

McCain-Ridge against Obama-Strickland, and the real election battle will be Bush-Gore in Florida... again.

[Patrick Joubert Conlon]

Yes, I hadn't thought of him but it makes perfect sense.

[Peter Cottontail]

Hey, don't overlook the effect of the primary debacle in Florida in Michigan. Obama is getting trounced in Florida in recent polling:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/florida/election_2008_florida_presidential_election

McCain is popular in Michigan and could win there with democrats in general angry with their party.

Add in Ridge to the mix, and it looks like we easily hold Florida, gain Penn and Michigan, and then can coast in Ohio as McCain is doing well there as it is and we could afford to lose it anyway. That frees up the GOP to pour money and resources into local elections to take back the Congress.

This is going to be a very, very Red year...

[Gullyborg]

You are certainly right to look at the polling in Florida and Ohio and see trouble for Obama. But polling is still early at this point. Things tighten up as the election draws near, and Obama has more campaign cash to help sell himself to voters in big markets. Having someone like Stickland or Brown on the ballot can immediately put Obama on top in Ohio. Michigan voters might be pissed at the DNC today, but that doesn't mean they will take it out on Obama in November. And anything goes in Florida. I believe Gore will come out swinging for Obama there, and McCain's strong lead will dwindle.

It will be close in November, but if McCain can effectively seal off Pennsylvania with Tom Ridge and appeal to moderate voters in Ohio and Florida, he can pull this off. But Obama won't go down easy, and the DNC will do everything it can to hang chads, rig the Diebolds, and steal recounts in Florida and Ohio...

[OregonGuy]

Hmm.

No "yuck" factor.

.

[Gullyborg]

?

[Al Czervic]

No person who believes that it's okay to murder children in the womb belongs in any position of public trust.

Ridge is tainted by the blood of millions of babies.

He deserves to be gone from the political scene altogether, and for this reason prolife McCain will never choose him.

McCain would alienate most of his base by putting a butcher in as VP.

He's smarter than that.

[AverageJoe]

I am going to say that your comments is thought provoking. Politicians will always play the mind game to get the voters. In my opinion, McCain is too old to be a president. He might end up with Alzheimer right after his put in office. As for as Hilary and Obama, I could careless what they are who they are as long as they stand behind their words and help every hard working Americans not bull*hit about stuff they can't handle.

http://you-me-and-world.blogspot.com