Resistance is futile!

Yes, it was a nuke

Already, the moonbats are out there trying to say "maybe it wasn't really a nuke... the blast was too small... it might have been a bunch of TNT... it's a scam... it's a conspiracy... there's no WMD's..." etc.

People, please.  This is my area of expertise.  It was a nuke.

At ~0.8 kT, it was relatively small.  That's about 1/20 the yield of the Hiroshima bomb.  But that's still one hell of a blast.  It would devastate an area as small - but as important - as downtown NYC.  It would wipe out an entire military installation.  It would penetrate a fortified underground bunker.  It would irradiate a population center.  And it would be next to impossible to produce such a blast with conventional explosives.

Here is the problem:

If you try to make a really, really big bomb with conventional explosives, you run into a huge problem getting all the explosives to detonate simultaneously.  If you try to set them all off at once with a single trigger, what ends up happening is that the shock-wave from the exploding material right next to the trigger pushes aside the material further out, scattering undetonated material.  Imagine a string of Black Cats.  Imagine one in the middle going off, splitting the string, and leaving you with two partial strings that don't go off.

You can set off a huge amount of explosives in a chain, where (like the Black Cats), one portion sets off the next portion and so on.  Problem is, you don't get one big blast.  You get a succession of small blasts.  It looks good (imagine war footage of a series of blasts going on down a line), but it won't do the same type of damage as one big blast.  Imagine running into a brick wall a hundred times on foot, compared to hitting a brick wall once with bull dozer.  Or imagine setting off a bunch of dynamite atop a fortified bunker, one stick at a time.  Not going to make much impact.  It's also not going to have the same seismic profile.  The shock-wave wouldn't register half-way around the world like an atomic bomb does.

There is a reason why conventional bombs have never come close to the blasting power of even a small, crude nuclear device.  The most powerful non-nuclear bomb ever set off, the MOAB, is about 1/40 the size of this nuke.  And we have yet to successfully set off two of them together, because the blast of the first one going off would destroy the second one and prevent it from exploding properly.

Now, people may think that this blast was so small for a nuke that we should be laughing at the ineptitude of the North Koreans.  However, this is false.

Yes, it was relatively small.  But remember, this was a TEST.  They were testing to see whether their design and build work.  And weapons grade plutonium is not a cheap thing you can throw around willy nilly.  When you are testing something that uses up expensive and hard-to-replace materials, you test on a small scale.  If the small-scale test gives you the yields you are hoping for, you can move ahead to the next level, which is usually an order of magnitude greater in scale.  And even still, at ~0.8 kT, this was a bigger blast than we get from our smaller, bunker-busting nuclear devices (~0.5 kT).

Given the data that we have right now, I think we can safely conclude that a nuclear explosion did take place, and the North Koreans are capable of immediately going into production of bombs comparable to the Hiroshima bomb.  And once they are able to produce devices which can consistently yield 20 kT or more - and it seems they aren't far off - they are literally only a tritium source away from producing hydrogen bombs and increasing the yields another order of magnitude into true absolute city-killing range.

This is a big, big deal.

And considering that Oregon has a useless Governor who fails to understand what Homeland Security really means, considering that Portland has an obstructionist Mayor who undermines Homeland Security by every means possible, and considering that the Port of Portland is one of the most important shipping centers in the world, we should all be very, very afraid of what might happen.  It would be very, very easy for Kim Jung Il to put a nuke on a boat and sail it right up the Columbia.  And by the nature of nuclear explosions, there wouldn't be much in the way of forensic evidence left to figure out what went wrong.

Keep that in mind when marking up your ballot, and choosing between people like democrat and stalwart anti-Bush obstructionist Peter DeFazio, and Republican and veteran counter-terrorism expert Jim Feldkamp...

Big bad news coming...

Insiders are telling me that the Mannix investigation brought to light by NW Republican may be bigger than anyone thought.  As in, big enough that not only might Mannix be destroyed by the negativity, but the Oregon Republican Party as a whole could suffer.  We are talking major, major issues here - and remember that Kevin was state GOP chair for a few years, so any dirt on him could easily be smeared over the entire party.

We won't know for sure until the story hits, probably in the Sunday paper.

But if my sources are correct, Mannix needs to drop out of the race before Sunday and diffuse this whole situation, before he blows our chances of dethroning the most vulnerable democrat incumbent Governor in the nation.  Moreover, if it is as bad as I am hearing, Mannix may bring down Republicans in other important regional races.  We don't want the whole Party to suffer just so Kevin can go on raising cash to pay off his campaign debts...

Dorchester Issue #2

Continuing on the issue theme, we moved on to issue number two, domestic wiretapping.  Should Congress authorize the President to wiretap without warrants in the War on Terror?

What's interesting about the debate on this one is that a fair number of those speaking against were doing so on the grounds that the President already has this power, and having Congress "authorize" it diminishes the power of the Executive as Commander-in-Chief in time of war.  But I would honestly say that more of the dissenters were concerned with civil liberties (a lot of the Dorchester crowd are libertarian-leaning Republicans).

I was so passionate about this that I wrote down what I was going to say so I could post it verbatim on my blog:

This issue isn't about gathering evidence for criminal trials; it's about war.  We are at war, and I want the United States to win this war.  I spent six years in military intelligence, so I know a thing or two about winning wars.  Do you want to know how you win wars?  Let me tell you:

You win wars by finding your enemies and killing your enemies.  You do not win wars by granting your enemies special rights and liberties!

I hold in my hand a copy of the Constitution of the United States of America.  I have read this great document front to back and back to front and do you know what?  Nowhere in this document can I find a single clause that says "terrorists at war with the United States have a special fundamental right to use our own national communications infrastructure to facilitate their war and help them kill Americans."

The Fourth Amendment is about evidence for criminal prosecutions, not the defense of our Nation in time of war.  Support our President and recognize the need for gathering intelligence against our terrorist enemies!

As I was at the microphone with my Constitution in hand, I noticed Jim Feldkamp in the audience looking at me and nodding approvingly...

One argument made against wiretaps came from those who fear the government abusing this power under the rule of a future democRat President like Hillary Clinton.  My argument against this shibboleth is that the only real solution is not to give our President power, but to make sure you don't elect anyone like Hillary Clinton!  After all, wasn't the Clinton administration in charge when over 80 innocent people, mostly women and children, were burned beyond recognition in their Waco church?  Do you really think that silly things like laws will protect you when people like this are in power?

In the end, the vote was 164-110 in favor.  Considering that a chunk of the no-votes were on the principle that the President already has this power inherently, I'd say an even stronger majority of those present supported the President with their vote.

U of O President Dave Frohnmayer has some explaining to do...

If you are a regular reader, you know that every weekend I run the Carnival of Cordite.  Well, this week I had to delay that for a few days because of something very important that happened right here, on the campus of my law school, yesterday morning.  The Carnival will be up later today (update: here it is!).  But if, like most of my Carnival readers, you are a patriotic American that appreciates national sovereignty, you will need to read this post!

Yesterday, Saturday, February 11, 2006, the University of Oregon played host to a "carousel of information."  If you aren't sure what that is, this post explains it all.  You should be shocked and outraged.  And you should demand that U of O President Dave Frohnmayer explain why his school - no, the PEOPLE'S school - played host to this event.

A "carousel of information" is a shady, half-public/half-underground system to help illegal aliens from Mexico obtain a matricula consular card, which can then be used as valid identification in the state of Oregon for the purpose of obtaining on Oregon driver's license.  Obviously, once an illegal alien has obtained a state-issued driver's license, the door is open to illegal voting, illegal application for welfare benefits, illegal use of food stamps, illegal coverage under the Oregon health plan, etc.

So, in other words, this is a network to help illegal aliens infiltrate our society at taxpayer expense.

And it took place at the HEP Building, on the U of O campus.

I can't just stand idly by and ignore something like this going right under my nose, at the campus of my law school no less!  Fortunately, I was far from alone...

What follows is a number of photographs from yesterday, along with links to other bloggers who have already written in more detail.

When I arrived on campus, the parking lot next to the HEP Building being used was blocked off by campus police.  This parking lot also happens to be next to the law school building.  I use it every day.  I paid $90 for the right to park here.  But not today!  Notice one illegal alien is already arriving.  He is allowed to enter the area the police have roped off.  I was not.

This angle shows the law school, the large red brick building, in the background.  The law school contains the law library, which is a public library open to all under Oregon law.  Just don't park next to it.

After parking in a different lot, I walked around to the front.  The other entrance/exit to this same parking lot is blocked off.  Notice the campus police car lending its support to help illegal aliens.

Behind the HEP Building.  Campus cops are doing their duty... to Mexico!

The State of Oregon and the University of Oregon think "public safety" includes helping illegal aliens thwart the system.

"Publicly owned" and "For official use only" seem to have some strange meaning with which I am not familiar...

Here is a state owned DHS vehicle arriving.  This isn't just the Mexican consul.  And it isn't just the U of O campus helping out.  There are a number of state employees inside, helping illegal aliens get benefits like food stamps.

The state owned vehicle isn't parking where anyone can see it, or who comes out of it.  It goes around the block.  And in this photo, you can see the many patriotic Americans who I met today in protest of this event.

While the state owned vehicles park out of sight, mysterious private vehicles are allowed to move inside the barrier.  Many of these vehicles have out of state plates.  Many more have dealer plates.  I guess there is good money in the illegal alien racket.

This car, inside the barrier next to the cop car, has California plates.  What is a vehicle with California plates doing here?

Check out this expensive new van with dealer plates.  Who is driving it?  Why is this person allowed to drive in and park, when students with parking permits are denied access to this lot?

Who are these people, standing inside the barrier while illegals wait in line?  That woman on the left is wearing a U of O name badge, but I can't get close enough to make out the name.  Why are U of O staff helping out with this event?  Why can't I, a student paying close to a hundred grand to this school, get an answer when I call out to this faculty member?

This gorgeous luxury SUV with dealer plates is being driven by the Mexican Consular.  He came and went a lot.

This is the man helping Mexicans illegally come to America and collect welfare benefits.

And don't fall into the trap of believing that this is in any way meant to help LEGAL immigrants.  One legal immigrant, with a valid green card, heard about this event and came to apply for a green card renewal.  He mistakenly thought he could come here for legal immigration assistance.  He was turned away.  Be sure to follow this link for photos and audio.  Here is the trashed form left by the immigrant who wanted to comply with the law:

So who exactly was here today in protest of this illegal assault on our national sovereignty?

The real leader of this effort is the blogger Daniel.  And before you call Daniel some sort of anti-Mexican bigot, I met his wife and she is the loveliest Hispanic woman you will ever meet.  She and Daniel are both the children of immigrants who came here LEGALLY.

Here is Daniel talking to a reporter from the Eugene Register-Guard newspaper.  Notice the spin in the newspaper article!  The first sentence:

Anti-immigration activists rallied Saturday in Eugene to oppose providing state social services to noncitizens and to criticize the Mexican consulate for issuing identification cards to immigrants.

Memo to the Red Guard: we are not anti-immigration.  We are anti-ILLEGAL immigration.  And we aren't opposed to "noncitizens."  We are opposed to ILLEGAL ALIENS.  There is a difference, as the man who came for a green card renewal found out.  The only "immigrants" getting ID cards were illegal aliens, because legal immigrants with green cards DO NOT NEED A MATRICULA CARD.

Here is Daniel talking to a reporter from KEZI news:

You can hear the audio here, thanks to Vonski.

Other bloggers there included Vonski, Nick, Kate, Cherrill, and probably some others I am forgetting (check these other blogs; I am sure they will cover anyone I missed, and they all have a ton of information about the day's goings on).

Look at these patriotic Americans lining the street in front of the HEP Building.

Our folks eventually stretched all the way down to Agate Street.

Patriotic Americans line both sides of the street.  The man with the camera is from the Coos County Citizen Caucus.  People came here from all over the state to show their support for our national sovereignty.  The head of Oregonians for Immigration Reform came to show support.  So did Jim Feldkamp, who is running for Congress this year.

Thanks to the good people from Coos County Citizen Caucus and OFIR, many patriotic Americans were able to send in letters to Victoria Taft for Operation ID.

Here I am signing mine.  Victoria should receive it shortly!

So now that we know who is on the side of America, who are the people coming to support illegal aliens?

Early on, these two came strolling up.  When I snapped this photo, I heard the blonde say "did that f'ing a'hole take our f'ing picture?"

Yes, I did.

I am guessing the blonde is an American citizen.  They let her friend go in, but she had to wait outside.  This woman is helping an illegal alien infiltrate our society at taxpayer expense!

This blue van came and went repeatedly, each time with different people in it.  It must be nice to have a shuttle service.

Lots of the people showing up for aid came in expensive new vehicles.  They must make a lot of money doing "jobs no Americans will do."  No wait... they just don't pay any income taxes...

These folks came... and parked illegally on the yellow line.  Well, I guess if you are willing to illegally come to America and commit welfare fraud, a little think like parking laws isn't going to slow you down...

I think this woman is here to have her anchor baby.  Or maybe she is just fat.  Good think DHS is here to give her food stamps!

Here is the line of people waiting to go inside for their cards:

Remember, they just want to come here and work and be part of our society... Maybe someone should tell the guy in the Steeler's hat that if wants to assimilate in the Pacific Northwest a week after the Super Bowl, he should try the Seahawks...

As the day went on, plenty of people began to show up in support of the illegals:

What Daniel is pointing at here is the opposition hiding their own signs.  That's right; they have signs to show us that they are supposedly supporting immigration, yet they go out of their way to hide them whenever one of us with a camera gets ready to take a photo!  What do they have to hide?

Here they are, blocking the cameras from another sign.  This one says "One Race, One Love" and has a "peace" symbol on it.  Or maybe that is a Mercedes logo?  I can't tell, because either way, they screwed it up.

Here they are, moving in front of another sign when the cameras come out.  But notice that they don't mind taking photos of us - and notice that we let them!  That girl on the left said to me, and I quote: "don't you put no pictures of my ass on no website."

I lost track of how many negatives where in her statement, so I ass-umed she was asking for it.

Here is a close up of the guy filming me:

So... he supports a convicted killer... who, as founder of the Crips gang, ordered the killing of a number of Hispanic and Asian immigrants... yeah, that makes sense...

This guy's t-shirt calls for terror attacks.

I can't tell if this person is supporting the illegal aliens or is just a typical U of O student.  It's hard to say.

What I have chronicled here for you is just a smattering of the information gathered by bloggers.  Be sure to follow the links to the other bloggers mentioned above for more photographs and information.  And if you are outraged by this, here are some things you need to do:

1) Contact U of O President Frohnmayer and demand answers.  If you are an alum, talk to the alumni association.  Let them know what is really going on.  And stop giving this school money!

2) Support candidates who will stop this travesty from happening.  We need a man like Jim Feldkamp in Congress.  We need Jason Atkinson as our governor.  And don't be fooled by the talk on Lars Larson: when it comes to illegal immigration, Jason Atkinson is tougher than Ron Saxton!

3) Spread the word.  Send this story to everyone you know!  Tell Michelle Malkin, because we need a national voice like hers to expose this to all America!

Impeachment

High Crimes and Misdemeanors.  Those are the grounds for impeachment, according to the Constitution.  And we have a clear cut case of it.  We need to impeach Judge Stephen Reinhardt of the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals!

Why?  Because he has committed a crime by ruling that schools have the right to ask 6-year old children extremely upsetting questions about their sex lives.

Pretend you are a parent of a 6-year old girl.  Pretend you take your pride-and-joy to the park.  While there, a gang of people surround you and prevent you from seeing your little girl.  You are powerless.  And then another person grabs your little girl and begins to talk to her about her vagina.  He asks her if she likes to be touched there.  He asks her if she ever feels dirty inside because of the way she touches her vagina.

By this time, if you decide to end this little game of imagination by "imagining" drawing your lawfully carried concealed Glock 17 and putting several 115-grain JHP slugs into the heads of the offenders, I salute you.  Because what I have just described is an out and out case of sexual molestation of a little girl.  You, as her parent, have every right, in fact, you have a duty, to protect her against this sort of abuse.

More importantly, the people in this little scenario are guilty of committing a crime.  Not just the one doing the sex talk, either: the people who tried to keep you from getting to your little girl were aiding and abetting a felony...

Just like Judge Reinhardt.

Because, under this ruling by Judge Reinhardt, schools can now sexually abuse your little girl just like the hypothetical perv in the park, and they can do so while preventing you, the parent, from knowing what is really happening.  Judge Reinhardt is aiding and abetting this perversion taking place against your children, against your will.  He is, by the very nature of his actions, committing a felony.  That's a high crime if ever there was one.

So demand that your Representative bring up Articles of Impeachment.  Judge Reinhardt MUST be removed from office.

UPDATE: per Sailor's idea in the comments below, I have sent this to Jim Feldkamp.  As a candidate for the U.S. House of Representatives, Feldkamp should make this a campaign issue.  If elected, he would have the power to draft articles of impeachment against Judge Reinhardt!  Contact Jim Feldkamp here.  Encourage him to take a stand against Judge Reinhardt.

Campaign Finance and Oregon's misguided Representatives

Free speech rights took another hit yesterday.  The U.S. House of Representatives failed to pass HB 1606, which would have exempted bloggers from certain elements of campaign finance "reform."

That means people like me, regular folks expressing political opinion, could become felons, for the crime of exercising the very right to freedom of speech our Founding Fathers envisioned when they wrote the First Amendment.

What remains unclear is: what is the "in kind value" of a blog post in support of a political candidate?  I myself have logged some long hours putting together blog posts that support candidates I like.  I have done this completely on my own, without any official coordination from campaigns.  Am I "contributing" to a campaign?  How much?  The dollar value of the bandwidth?  The dollar value of the man-hours of labor?

Am I now some sort of felon for not filing an FEC report?

No one knows.

On the discouraging side: the Supreme Court has already waffled once on the Constitutionality of McCain-Feingold.  If you read the judicial opinion here, you will be dazzled by a sea of joint opinions, concurrences, and dissents.  The case is so muddled, even top legal scholars don't really know what it means.  And we have no way of knowing how the new Chief Justice and nominee Altio might rule should the issue be revisited.  So we can't count on the courts actually upholding our free-speech rights when they matter (although we can always count on our courts protecting our right to live-sex-acts-for-cash).

On the encouraging side, although HB 1606 failed, it failed under special rules that required a 2/3 supermajority.  We had a solid majority on our side, but it still came up shy of the 2/3 requirement.  This is a problem with the rules of procedure under which the bill was introduced.  It is possible for a brand new bill to be brought up in the House, and then it will only require a simple majority to pass.  We have more than enough votes to protect our freedom in the House.  It's just a matter of bringing the matter up properly.

On the discouraging side, 4 out of 5 of Oregon's Representatives voted AGAINST our free-speech rights.  Our lone Republican, Greg Walden, failed us, even though Republicans as a whole voted 179-38 to protect free speech.  Conservatives need to get on Walden's case.  He needs to become more informed about our rights.  Contact Greg Walden and give him an ear full.

Here in District 4, we have had neo-socialist Peter DeFazio allegedly representing us for almost two decades.  DeFazio always claims to be a crusader for our civil liberties and individual rights.  And yet he joined with the minority of anti-free-speech Representatives who killed HB 1606.

If you are one of the many liberal activists here in Eugene who are always ready to fight for free speech, you should be outraged at your Representative.  Consider this come next November, when you have a chance to vote in Jim Feldkamp.

I hate to turn this into a partisan issue.  Both liberal and conservative bloggers have been united in this cause to protect our freedom.  Even the most powerful leftist blog, Daily Kos, is upset at the result.  But the facts are clear: looking at the roll call vote, Republicans were overwhelming for our rights, while democRats were overwhelmingly against.

This is just further proof that, contrary to their claims, the democRats and their big-media allies care less about individual rights, and choose the establishment over the little guy.

And so I must do a very rare thing: I must thank Democrat Representative Earl Blumenauer of Oregon's 3rd District for crossing party lines and voting to uphold our free-speech rights.

Now: if your Representatives voted no on HB 1606, contact them and demand an answer as to why they oppose freedom of political speech.

Meanwhile, where was the ACLU?  They have been strangely silent... as they often are when real liberties are at stake.

Still not my mayor

Mayor Kitty Piercy cast the tie-breaking vote to permanently kill the West Eugene Parkway.  Once again, an elite cabal of five individuals has thwarted the will of the people.  This is in many ways similar to a single judge killing Measure 37.

Measure 37 is the reincarnation of Measure 7.  In both cases, an overwhelming majority of the people told the government that individual property rights matter.  And in both cases, one judge had more power than a million Oregonians.  The West Eugene Parkway has twice been approved by the people of Eugene.  And now one person has killed it.

I am so angry I can barely contain myself.  I live in the unincorporated Santa Clara region of Eugene.  That means I can't vote for or against Kitty Piercy come election time.  But my home is literally right next to where the West Eugene Parkway would have run.  It would make my life so much better.  It would help the city.  It would bring in jobs.  It would allow new businesses to come to the area.

This issue has a huge impact on me, and I get no vote.

Now it's dead.

The West Eugene Parkway was originally passed by the people TWENTY YEARS AGO.  Since then, traffic has only gotten worse.  Will it be another 20 years before a new road is built in Eugene?

The time has come for serious changes in our government, at all levels throughout the state.  We need a new Governor who will work for the people.  We need new legislators who will represent us instead of special interests.  But it goes beyond that.  We need a new Secretary of State who won't use the position to be a partisan hatchet man.  We need new County Commissioners who understand the importance of land use.  We need better voices in Washington.  And we need a new city council.  Eugene is becoming a wasteland as existing business close up shop or leave town and new business fear to tread.  The rest of the country is seeing an economic boom, yet Eugene has massive unemployment and economic malaise.

Our city council is run by environmental extremists who think that magically-defined "wetlands" are more important than roads, homes, and business.  What they don't tell you is that most of these "wetlands" were farmland a few generations ago, but have seen been redefined to stymie growth.  They think it's wrong to convert a farm to another profitable venture, but it should be mandatory to convert a farm into a swamp.

All we have to do is look across the river to see how it should be done.  Springfield is growing.  Springfield is building new roads.  Businesses are coming to Springfield.  There are jobs and new homes in Springfield.  In 20 years, Springfield will be the center of commerce in the Willamette Valley.  Eugene will just be a dried-up college town where ex-hippies go to die.

But it doesn't have to be so.  It's time to stand up and take back our government.  It's time for government to work FOR the people instead of against them.  And we need to send a message about the West Eugene Parkway.  I can think of no better way than to vote the bastards out of office.

Indictments, convictions, and money

I got this in the old mail bag:

STATEMENT ON THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY OF OREGON'S PRESS RELEASE REGARDING CAMPAIGN CONTRIBUTIONS

It is disingenuous and overtly politically motivated for the Democrat Party to "demand" that Republicans return 2004 campaign contributions from Congressman Tom Delay.

I'd like to remind the Democrat Party of Oregon of a few facts:

In our country you are innocent until proven guilty;

An indictment is not a conviction;

The precedent for not returning campaign contributions has already been set none other than the DCCC and its Chairman Rahm Emanuel who earlier went on record indicating that indictment alone is not compelling enough of a reason to return political contributions.  Mr. Emanuel is in receipt of a contribution from former Democrat Party finance director Joseph A. Cari Jr.

Mr. Cari is facing federal extortion charges.

I am proud of the fact that I raised more money than any previous Republican challenger in the 4th Congressional district and I am equally proud that my 2004 campaign caught the attention of top Republicans in Congress.

Finally, I'd like to add something my mother always told me, "people in glass houses should not throw stones," and the Democrat Party of Oregon already has a few cracked windows.

Powerful words from Jim Feldkamp, who is again seeking to dethrone Peter DeFazio.

A major change coming to Oregon?

Well, we've had a few days to think about Measure 37 and the activist judge who "found" it unconstitutional.

Other blogs have handled the legal arguments.  Other blogs have analyzed the loss of individual liberty to the hands of the State.

I'm going to address a different issue: what this means for upcoming elections.  And I'm going to go out on a limb and say something controversial: this may be the best thing to happen to Oregon.

What?

A single appointed judge throwing a sucker punch to the guts of over one million voters and damaging private property rights AND the ballot initiative process is a good thing?

You betcha!  In the long run...

This case will, of course, be appealed.  And knowing what I know about the Oregon courts, my estimate is that the case will be heard by the Oregon Court of Appeals in the next few months, and a decision will be reached about a year from now.  And I fully expect the liberal activist Oregon Court of Appeals to uphold this case.

In other words, the decision, which today only affects a single county, will become state law about a month or so before the 2006 election for Governor, the Legislature, the courts, and a number of county and local offices.

And voters will be pissed.

I heard Kevin Mannix and Jason Atkinson talking on the radio about this today.  Ron Saxton was on as well, but I missed him.  Kevin and Jason both sounded pretty ticked off.  But there was a marked difference in their tones.  Kevin talked like a lawyer, ready to draft legislation, etc., to fix the problem.  And that's a good thing.  But Jason sounded like an Oregonian.  I could tell he was fighting to keep his emotion in check (also a good thing), but I got the chills hearing him talk because he captured in his criticism of the decision the spirit of the million Oregonians who, once again, had their decision cast out by a single elitist.

I think voters who hear Jason speak about Measure 37 are going to find not another politician, but someone who thinks like they do.  He is ready for change in Oregon.  And I believe the people will finally be ready as well.  If he can develop a positive message about the issues of the Measure 37 decision, a message of a change in the political culture of the State, and get his message across to the voters in the next few months, he can walk away with the primary and the general election.

And of course, it isn't just Atkinson who stands to gain from this.  Mannix will also gain, as he too is on the side of the vast majority of Oregonians.  Saxton might also pick up new supporters, depending on how he comes off.  This is a gain for the Republican Party as a whole, as the democRat Governor and the democRats in control of the Senate have been weak on Measure 37 from the beginning.  Atkinson, Mannix, and possibly Saxton will each siphon votes, not from each other, but from Kulongoski.

This could also be a huge leap for newcomers to the Oregon courts.  Jack Roberts can probably ride this one all the way to a black robe.  And if a credible conservative challenger to Justice Durhan comes along, the upcoming statewide detest of incumbent judges could result in a major shift on the Supreme Court of Oregon.  And God help any member of the Court of Appeals up for re-election in 2006 who is part of a majority that upholds the trial court decision!

Kevin Mannix: are you listening?  Now, more than ever, you have the power to enter the race for Supreme Court of Oregon and dethrone Justice Durham.  Between Measure 37 and the "live sex acts for cash is protected free expression" cases, we are overdue for an upheaval.

This will also have a huge impact on the Legislature.  I think we can expect the Oregon House to gain Republican seats, and the Oregon Senate to shift into Republican control.  Jim Torrey has probably gone from a "could defeat the incumbent" to a "could pummel the incumbent beyond recognition" candidate for State Senate.

Of course, as this is a state issue, not a federal issue, you'd expect the effect on U.S. House races to be minimal.  But the sheer outrage among Oregonians against the status quo in light of Measure 37 could be so great that even Jim Feldkamp might have a very real shot at defeating Peter DeFazio.

And what will happen come 2008?

This just might be the one single issue capable of causing enough of a shift in voter perception to put Oregon seriously into play for the 2008 Presidential election.  I'm not saying the Republicans will win the state over this.  But I am saying that, since Republicans have only lost this state to democRats by one or two percent in the last two elections, a sea change in the attitudes of voters towards the establishment (which, in Oregon, means democRats), could be more than enough to change that 1-2% from blue to red.

Friday, October 14, 2005, just might have been the day that Oregon became a conservative Republican "red state."

I may need to buy that judge a beer.

More encouraging news

Former Eugene Mayor Jim Torrey is running for the State Senate.  He will run in District 7, the seat currently held by democrat Senator Vicki Walker.  Walker is running for the democrat nomination against incumbent Governor Ted Kulongoski. 

I have no idea if Walker will run for Senate re-election if her gubernatorial bid goes nowhere.  But I think Torrey is a lock regardless.  Torrey is incredibly well respected in the area and will make a fine State Senator.  Don't be fooled by the Red Guard's statement about Walker already beating one former Mayor: Jim Torrey was probably the most popular Mayor Eugene has ever had; there is no comparison between Torrey and Jeff Miller.

If Walker bows out of the Senate race, there is no local democrat who can make a credible challenge against Torrey.  Bob Ackerman, an extreme liberal, may be popular in his own House district, but Senate 7 includes many more-conservative neighborhoods.  Ackerman will lack the broad appeal in the region enjoyed by Torrey.

But even if Walker decides to stay in her current office, Torrey will have an edge.

Walker will be battered by her challenge to Kulongoski.  She will have that big "loser" stamp on her forehead.  She is already doing poorly in her gubernatorial bid, with an incredibly incompetent performance on the Lars Larson show.  I'm not being partisan, and neither was Lars.  She was asked simple questions and gave meandering non-answers.  She came off as a doddering fool.  It all adds up to her retirement unless she gets out of the Governor's race NOW and puts forth a Herculean effort towards keeping her seat.

And in other potentially good news... I have heard from an anonymous source that long-time liberal U.S. Representative (and embarrassment to Oregon) Peter DeFazio is going to retire rather than seek re-election.  If true, Jim Feldkamp may as well pick out a new suit for his swearing in.  As long as he runs for re-election, DeFazio remains unbeatable.  But with an open seat, Feldkamp, by virtue of his impressive challenge to DeFazio in 2004, has the advantage of organization and fund-raising against an unknown democrat challenger.

But like I said, this is only potentially good news.  We'll see how that source pans out.  I'm not going to hold my breath...